The US and Iran have clashed once again, with tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalating.

According to reports from China Central Television, explosions were heard on Iran's Larak Island around 10 p.m. local time on August 30. US forces bombed two military facilities belonging to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the island — marking the first time in over a month that the US has used military force against Iran.

US Central Command spokesman Tim Hawkins stated that American forces observed IRGC personnel "preparing to launch mine-carrying rockets toward the Strait of Hormuz," prompting strikes on two launch systems on Larak Island.

Iran quickly retaliated. The IRGC announced on social media in the early hours of August 31 that it had fired missiles at a US military base. In an official statement, the IRGC declared that the enemy's attack on Iran's Larak Island would certainly be met with revenge, and that the aggressors would be punished. The statement also said the US and Israel's assault on Larak Island had left multiple Iranian personnel injured.

Explosions were heard once again on Larak Island in the early hours of August 31. Oil prices rose on the news, with Brent crude briefly breaking through the $90 per barrel mark, while WTI gained 1.7% to reach $84.80.

Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at energy hedge fund Gallo Partners, said: "Tonight's renewed strike on Iran not only highlights how fragile the de-escalation process is, but also proves again the Revolutionary Guard's determination to obstruct free passage through the Strait of Hormuz... This situation is like a never-ending powder keg, continuously embedding a risk premium into oil prices."

Limited scale of strikes, but Iran vows retaliation

According to the Financial Times, this operation was significantly smaller and more targeted compared to the last known large-scale strike. On July 29, US forces had struck "dozens" of targets during a two-hour bombing campaign.

IRGC spokesman Mohbi used strong language in response, characterizing the attack as a "strategic and fatal mistake," saying "this error will change the situation, and it will work against those who planned it." He added: "The enemy will pay for this miscalculation on both the economic and military fronts."

Earlier statements from the Revolutionary Guard also claimed that the US and Israeli attack on Larak Island had caused casualties among Iranian military personnel and civilians, and that "the aggressors will certainly be punished."

Internal US military warnings: Sustained campaign against Iran unsustainable

On the same day as the exchange of fire, noteworthy voices emerged from within the US.

According to China Central Television, US officials disclosed on August 30 that multiple senior US military commanders had warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that continuing large-scale military operations against Iran would become unsustainable, potentially weakening the US military's ability to conduct operations globally and even defend the American homeland.

Multiple anonymous sources familiar with classified Pentagon assessment documents revealed that these warnings appeared in the August 14 "Secretary of Defense Command Manual" — an internal classified document that compiles global troop deployments, equipment readiness status, and input from theater commanders.

Specifically: commanders of US European Command, Indo-Pacific Command, Southern Command, and the Chief of Naval Operations all opposed the plan to extend some US troop deployments in the Middle East through 2027, arguing that the current military operations had already lasted "too long."

The US Navy currently has only about a quarter of its destroyers ready for immediate deployment, potentially facing ship shortages if other conflicts break out in the future.

A large number of ships and aircraft have been redirected to US Central Command, crowding out training and homeland defense capabilities.

It is worth noting that these objections merely reflect commanders' disagreement with the orders — they will still carry them out. US Army and Air Force officials, while not explicitly objecting, also indicated that extending Middle East deployments carries significant risks.

Economic pressure campaign advances, but below expectations

Beyond military action, the US has simultaneously intensified economic pressure.

According to the Financial Times, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced last Monday an expansion of secondary sanctions against Iran, warning that the measures could "shake" the global financial system. However, the actual actions taken by Washington so far have been limited to revoking Egyptian bank's UAE branch's access to the US financial system.

Bessent stated: "Since the bank has chosen to defy the rules, today we begin taking action to hold it accountable for its sustained and blatant support of the Iranian regime." According to the Associated Press, Bessent also said actions against another bank would be announced in the coming days.

The report noted that Bessent's reluctance to target larger financial institutions reflects Washington's concerns about further disrupting the global economy and financial markets.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters via Global Times, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on social media platform X on August 28 that renewed negotiations between the US and Iran are not impossible — but only if the US abandons its maximum pressure campaign. He said: "Getting diplomacy back on track is not impossible, but it depends on whether America can understand a simple fact: pressure does not work."

Stalemate persists, both sides under pressure

Media outlets have characterized the current situation as a "stalemate": six months of conflict between the US and Iran, collapsed negotiations, with the Trump administration seeking to end the conflict on favorable terms while Iran, knowing the war is unpopular domestically in the US and is depleting American military stockpiles, refuses to compromise.

According to the Straits Times, Trump's ongoing war with Iran has sparked voter discontent, pushed up inflation, and could jeopardize Republican prospects in the November midterm elections, with concerns growing within the party.

Iran is also under strain. According to the Times of Israel, Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that US sanctions and blockades have shrunk Iran's foreign trade by nearly 35%, with import and export volumes declining 25% to 35% in recent months.

The question of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated on August 29 that the strait is currently completely closed, and "will not reopen until the US fulfills its commitments." Meanwhile, US Central Command spokesman Tim Hawkins said US forces had completed clearing mines from the international shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz last week, adding that "US forces are closely monitoring the region and stand ready to ensure commercial freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz."

As both sides present conflicting accounts, the trajectory of the Middle East situation remains highly uncertain, and the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices is expected to persist.