Title

Earning Preview: POP MART Q1 revenue is expected to increase by about 200%, and institutional views are broadly bullish

Abstract

Pop Mart International Group will release its quarterly update on March 25, 2026 post-Market; investors will focus on whether product launches and global execution sustain rapid top-line momentum while preserving margins near recent peaks.

Market Forecast

Consensus commentary this season points to another quarter of rapid revenue expansion for Pop Mart International Group, with expectations anchored to the company’s demonstrated 2025 run-rate; while the company has not issued formal quarterly guidance, investors broadly anticipate revenue growth versus last year, gross profit margin roughly in line with the prior quarter, steady net profitability, and no published adjusted EPS figure for this period. The core business is expected to benefit from a dense schedule of new product introductions and continued sell-through strength, while the most promising platform remains high-velocity proprietary IP lines that have scaled to meaningful revenue, exemplified by THEMONSTERS with RMB 4.81 billion in 2025 year-to-date sales cadence (YoY growth for the line was not disclosed).

Last Quarter Review

Pop Mart International Group’s last reported quarter delivered RMB 13.88 billion in revenue, a gross profit margin of 70.34%, net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.29 billion, a net profit margin of 32.97%, and adjusted EPS was not disclosed on a quarterly basis; quarter-on-quarter net profit growth was flat. A notable financial highlight was the resilience of profitability at scale, with high gross margins indicating sustained pricing power and product-mix quality amid rapid sell-through. The main business, Brand Development, Design and Sales of Toys, contributed RMB 13.88 billion for the quarter; YoY breakdown was not disclosed in the quarter’s segment detail, though management communications across early 2026 emphasize robust demand and IP refresh frequency.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Commercial Engine: Core IP Sell-Through, Launch Cadence, and Margin Durability

The quarter’s operating rhythm is shaped by the company’s ability to synchronize IP releases, product refreshes, and channel inventory turns without impairing full-price sell-through. Since January, management communications and third-party coverage have underscored that 2025 achieved an aggregate of over 400 million units sold across IPs and product categories. That throughput supports three near-term expectations. First, price realization at launch and repeat replenishment in flagship lines should keep gross margin near the prior quarter’s 70.34%, as the revenue mix remains skewed to proprietary IP with strong collectability. Second, scale efficiencies in logistics and production are set to support stable operating margin conversion, which aligns with the prior quarter’s 32.97% net margin and the flat quarter-on-quarter net profit trajectory reported last time. Third, launch pacing across late February and March 2026—such as the new “Key A” line and the recently introduced “After School Merodi”—expands the breadth of offerings and can mitigate concentration in a single hero IP, helping smooth demand spikes and limiting markdown risk. Commercially, the operational focus in the quarter is a balanced approach to pre-sale and spot-sale models. Commentary throughout late 2025 into early 2026 emphasized that a return to spot-sale for key drops improves lifecycle control and normalizes reorder patterns. For this quarter, that dynamic should reduce acute volatility in weekly sell-through while preserving the excitement premium around first-issue releases. From a margin standpoint, the mix of blind-box collectibles and higher-ticket limited editions remains accretive. This has historically proved supportive of gross margin resilience even as volumes expand, and it is a reasonable base case for this quarter given the high-visibility launch calendar and continued high engagement for top IP characters. On the revenue line, the determining variables are breadth of SKU launches, velocity of core SKUs, and the cadence of cross-seasonal events in March. Given the company’s habit of clustering releases and collaborations around marketing tentpoles, the quarter’s exit rate is likely to be stronger than its start. If the quarter mirrors the recent pattern—where new-series drops and festival-linked promotions bolster late-quarter traffic—the setup favors sequential revenue momentum into late March. Combined, these elements make it plausible for revenue to continue expanding rapidly on a year-over-year basis while margins remain broadly stable relative to the prior quarter.

High-Potential Platform: Scaled IP Franchises and Rapid-Fire New IP Incubation

The near-term growth option with the clearest revenue visibility is the portfolio of scaled proprietary IPs. The most prominent example remains THEMONSTERS, which reached RMB 4.81 billion in 2025 revenue cadence and effectively demonstrated the scalability of a top-tier character franchise. Although YoY growth metrics by IP were not separately disclosed, the absolute revenue level indicates headroom for repeat purchases through variants, seasonals, and limited editions. The pipeline of new IPs is also accelerating: the count of newly launched IPs increased from 29 in 2024 to 57 in 2025, and in late February through March 2026, the company unveiled “After School Merodi” followed quickly by “Key A.” In past cycles, accelerating IP introduction has correlated with higher shelf productivity and diversified traffic sources in both online and offline channels, which helps underpin the top line when individual IPs cycle through peak-and-normal phases. Another driver within this platform is the deepening of the SKU architecture within each IP—standard blind-box lines, plus plush, figures of larger scales, and limited, higher-price editions. This tiering not only improves average order value and customer lifetime value but also allows the company to defend gross margin as volumes scale. While exact contribution by tier this quarter is not disclosed, this architecture typically skews mix toward margin-accretive products during launch windows. An additional supportive factor this quarter comes from ongoing brand activity and exhibitions tied to legacy IPs such as MOLLY, including anniversary-themed experiences. These initiatives tend to lift engagement and sell-through for both new and classic SKUs, which may modestly lift revenue density per store and per online visitor compared with a normal quarter. A potentially underappreciated contributor to growth is the IP protection and licensing enforcement capability. The public resolution of a recent IP copyright matter in mid-March 2026 removes a distraction and may deter unauthorized derivative works on third-party content platforms. In the near term, that can help reduce revenue cannibalization from unlicensed channels and protect the economics of limited runs. For a quarter defined by several new releases, a cleaner IP environment can translate into better conversion and a longer full-price window.

Share Price Drivers This Quarter: Delivery vs Run-Rate, Global Execution, and Valuation Sensitivity

The stock’s reaction around March 25, 2026 is likely to hinge on three factors. The first is delivery against the high run-rate implied by 2025 volume and the prior quarter’s margin profile. With last quarter’s gross margin at 70.34% and net margin at 32.97%, investors will scrutinize whether the combination of new drops and replenishment can sustain similar profitability while growing the top line at pace. If reported margins remain broadly stable and revenue trends appear to accelerate into late March, the setup would be supportive. Any sign of weaker-than-expected sell-through or a need for promotional activity would be viewed as a short-term negative. The second driver is global execution, especially in the Americas. The company is in the process of deepening its on-the-ground footprint, highlighted by plans to establish a regional hub in California. For this quarter, what matters is early evidence of fulfillment speed, localized merchandising, and incremental traffic from new communities around key metro areas. Improvements in delivery times and store traffic can act as leading indicators for subsequent quarters. Even though these initiatives may not immediately translate into material revenue this quarter, credible updates could positively influence forward expectations. The third driver is valuation sensitivity to headline narratives. Since January, financial media and market commentators have highlighted cumulative 2025 unit sales and the elevated cadence of IP launches. Those points anchor a constructive narrative heading into the print. On the other hand, a previously disclosed Underperform initiation by a well-known broker in late 2025 (reiterated by some commentators in March 2026) remains part of the backdrop. In the near term, management’s commentary on restocking, channel health, and cadence of new IPs through the second quarter of 2026 will likely outweigh dated skepticism if operating metrics remain firm. The speed and clarity with which the company communicates sell-through and replenishment trends will therefore carry outsized influence on the stock’s reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish commentary dominates recent coverage since January 2026, outnumbering bearish takes by a wide margin in professional and market-facing reports. A widely cited report in February 2026 noted that Pop Mart surpassed 400 million units sold across IPs in 2025, a datapoint many analysts and strategists interpret as proof of durable demand depth heading into 2026. The same cycle of commentary highlights the company’s rapid IP incubation pace—57 new IPs in 2025 versus 29 in 2024—and views the late-February and March 2026 releases as a constructive demand catalyst into the quarter’s close. This perspective is reinforced by positive discussions around the company’s planned establishment of a regional headquarters in California, which is seen as an operational step that can improve localization, accelerate collaboration pipelines, and strengthen logistics for the Americas over subsequent quarters. Within this majority view, the analytical focus is not on one-off headline releases but on the repeatability of the product engine. Proponents point to three recurring pillars: an expanding proprietary IP slate that continues to add breadth and reduces reliance on any single character; a differentiated product architecture that spans entry-price collectibles to higher-ticket limited editions, sustaining robust gross margins; and balanced sales models that increasingly favor spot-sale availability to normalize lifecycle management and encourage ongoing, non-promotional repeats. This line of reasoning argues that the prior quarter’s 70.34% gross margin and 32.97% net margin offer a reasonable baseline for this quarter’s profitability, especially with multiple product drops and brand engagement events clustered across March. Bullish assessments also note the positive read-through from IP enforcement developments as a small but helpful sentiment tailwind. The mid-March 2026 resolution of a copyright dispute with a third-party platform is perceived as reducing the risk of unauthorized derivative content siphoning off demand from licensed products. Analysts within the majority camp view this as incrementally supportive of sell-through for first-issue runs and limited editions during this quarter’s launch cycle. While not a central driver of the long-term story, it reduces noise around the short-term results window. Finally, the majority camp frames valuation through the lens of delivery and durability. With trailing metrics reflecting strong growth and high margins, supportive opinions emphasize that the quarter’s key test is execution—matching a high bar without sacrificing pricing discipline or inventory quality. The expectation among bullish analysts is that revenue will show a sharp year-over-year increase and that gross margin will remain near last quarter’s level, with net margin healthy given the mix and scaled operations. This constructive stance, amplified in early-2026 professional coverage and market commentary, sets a favorable tone going into March 25, 2026 post-Market, contingent on the company reaffirming stable sell-through, disciplined allocations, and a well-sequenced IP release calendar across the rest of 2026.