解析股市在鲍威尔讲话后大涨的原因

投资观察
Aug 22

华尔街本来准备对美联储主席鲍威尔今日的讲话感到失望,结果却意外地受到了鼓舞。

Spectra Markets对交易员进行的调查显示,约44%的受访者预期鲍威尔会发表"鹰派"或"极度鹰派"的讲话。只有9%的人预期会是"鸽派"讲话,其余受访者则预期讲话不会偏向任何一方。

对9月降息的确信度在8月13日达到峰值,当时期货价格显示交易员认为降息的确定性为100%。但到周四,这一概率已经滑落至75%,原因是批发层面通胀数据超出预期以及其他数据显示经济活动仍然稳固。

在周四的采访中,Cleveland Fed主席Beth Hammack表示劳动力市场仍然"相当良好",这为9月16-17日政策会议上不降息提供了理由。Hammack今年在美联储会议上是无投票权的参与者。

然而,鲍威尔在周五采取了不同的调子,强调了劳动力市场的脆弱性,并暗示对降息持开放态度——这一信息引发了股市和债市的大幅上涨。

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