While the market remains concerned about NVIDIA's short-term stock performance, top Wall Street investment banks are already looking ahead to 2026.
According to reports, Goldman Sachs' research note on August 27th showed that NVIDIA's second quarter earnings and third quarter guidance were largely in line with market expectations. However, against the backdrop of previously widespread optimism, NVIDIA's stock price may face moderate downward pressure in the short term.
Nevertheless, the firm maintains its "Buy" rating on NVIDIA and holds an extremely optimistic view of its performance in 2026, pointing out that the company will have significant upside potential at that time.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider's team set their 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate at a level significantly higher than Wall Street consensus, approximately 10% above, and provided three core reasons supporting this judgment.
**Next-generation "Rubin" platform ready to launch**
Goldman Sachs views NVIDIA's next-generation product roadmap as the core pillar of its bullish stance. The report clearly states that NVIDIA's next-generation "Rubin" platform has entered early manufacturing stages and is expected to achieve mass production by mid-2026.
According to the report, NVIDIA management revealed that all six chips comprising the new Rubin platform have begun trial production. Although technical details disclosed are limited, management expressed optimism about Rubin platform's significant improvements over Blackwell in terms of workload performance, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness.
The firm's predictive model also shows that Rubin will begin to become an important component of GPU shipments in 2026, opening a new product-driven growth cycle for the company.
**Customer diversification with sovereign customers contributing doubled growth**
NVIDIA's growth story is becoming increasingly diversified. Goldman Sachs' report emphasizes that the company's customer base continues to broaden, moving away from over-reliance on a few hyperscale cloud service providers (CSPs). Data shows that large cloud service providers currently account for 50% of data center revenue combined, which precisely demonstrates the rise of other customer groups.
Among these, the most notable growth comes from non-traditional customers, especially sovereign AI projects. According to NVIDIA management's estimates, revenue from sovereign customers will exceed $20 billion in 2025, achieving more than double the growth compared to 2024. This strong momentum indicates that global demand for building autonomous AI infrastructure is opening up a new and enormous incremental market for NVIDIA.
**Dual drivers of hyperscale computing and emerging demand**
Goldman Sachs believes that NVIDIA's significant upside potential in 2026 will be driven by both traditional advantages and emerging opportunities. The report states: "We maintain our Buy rating based on our expectation of significant upside opportunities in 2026, driven by increased spending from hyperscale cloud service providers and demand from non-traditional customers."
This means that Goldman Sachs not only sees the explosive potential of new demands such as sovereign AI, but also believes that hyperscale cloud service providers, which form NVIDIA's fundamental base, will continue to increase their investment in AI infrastructure.
This "dual-driver" landscape provides high certainty for NVIDIA's future revenue and profit growth. Based on this judgment, Goldman Sachs provided 2026 earnings forecasts higher than market consensus and believes that current short-term volatility provides layout opportunities for long-term investors.
**Short-term challenges remain but don't change long-term logic**
Although NVIDIA currently faces uncertainty in its China business due to export restrictions, such as Blackwell product export licenses and H20 product demand, management is actively communicating with the U.S. government to seek approval for Blackwell-based product sales in China. The H20 ban has been lifted, and some customer licenses have been approved.
If related uncertainties are resolved, NVIDIA expects H20 product shipments in the Chinese market to reach $2-5 billion in the third quarter. This indicates that potential recovery in the Chinese market will also provide additional momentum for NVIDIA's growth in 2026.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that despite facing geopolitical challenges and production ramp-up pressures, NVIDIA's long-term growth logic remains strong, with 2026 being a key breakout year.
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