European natural gas futures rose to around €55 per MWh on Thursday, halting a four-day decline, driven by uncertainties over a Middle East ceasefire and ongoing threats to energy infrastructure. Initial hopes for a truce quickly faded after Iran rejected Washington's 15-point peace proposal and presented its own conditions. Widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region has been reported, with approximately 40 energy assets attacked. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced energy shipments to reroute, significantly reducing liquefied natural gas availability and intensifying competition with Asian buyers for alternative supplies. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub was among the first facilities damaged, with two of its 14 LNG production trains and one of two gas-to-liquid units affected. QatarEnergy LNG declared force majeure on 17% of its LNG capacity, equivalent to 12.8 million tons per year, which will be offline for three to five years.

Previously, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered forecasted that global oil prices would remain elevated for longer due to persistent supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts and structural market constraints. The bank raised its 2026 Brent crude projection to $85.50 per barrel, a significant 35% increase from prior estimates. Now, these energy specialists anticipate European natural gas prices will continue their upward trend. According to Standard Chartered, if U.S.-Iran tensions remain unresolved before the summer injection season begins, TTF gas prices could surpass €80 per MWh (approximately $92.40 per MWh)—levels last seen after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The bank also indicated that forward curve prices through 2028 may stay high, suggesting prolonged elevated gas costs for the continent.

Beyond Middle East conflicts, Europe's natural gas storage is nearly depleted, exacerbating pressure on the energy sector. Inventories currently stand at just 28% of total capacity, the lowest since 2022. A relatively severe winter led to higher-than-expected heating demand, rapidly depleting reserves accumulated the previous year. Additionally, seasonal gas spreads through much of early 2026 made it unprofitable for market participants to purchase and inject gas into storage, causing companies to delay replenishing stocks. The situation is more critical in the Netherlands, where production cuts at the Groningen gas field and the closure of related trading operations have driven local inventory levels to record lows, now below 6%.

However, Standard Chartered noted that gas prices are unlikely to approach 2022 peaks (when they exceeded €300 per MWh, or about $346 per MWh), primarily due to rapid LNG capacity expansion and Europe's continued diversification of energy supplies through renewable sources. The global LNG market is undergoing significant growth, with substantial new capacity expected by 2030, mainly from the U.S. and Qatar. Based on projects that have reached final investment decisions or are under construction, the International Energy Agency projects nearly 300 billion cubic meters per year of new LNG export capacity by 2030. Over the past three years, the U.S. accounted for nearly three-quarters of global LNG final investment decisions. With projects like Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage III, and Golden Pass coming online, the U.S. is strengthening its position as the world's top exporter, with capacity expected to grow about 60% above 2024 levels.

Qatar's North Field Expansion project will substantially boost production capacity, reinforcing its role as a low-cost supplier, though delays are anticipated due to ongoing geopolitical instability.

Meanwhile, Africa is poised to become a major player in the global LNG boom, with projects under construction expected to contribute approximately 93 million tons per year—about 20% of new global capacity by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa alone is projected to approve 74 million tons per year of new LNG export capacity. The region is experiencing a surge in LNG project development, driven by major initiatives in Mozambique, Tanzania, Nigeria, and West Africa, aiming to quadruple output by 2050. Key projects include Tanzania's $42 billion LNG agreement and the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project, recently revived by TotalEnergies. Located on the Afungi Peninsula, the latter is expected to produce over 13 million tons of LNG annually, generate $35 billion in revenue for Mozambique, and begin production in 2029.