Ark Forecasts Custom Chips to Capture Over One-Third of Computing Market by 2030, Amazon to Challenge NVIDIA's Dominance

Deep News
Mar 02

Cathie Wood, known as "Mama Wood," recently emphasized the increasing competition facing NVIDIA in a social media post. Her firm, Ark Investment Management, predicts that custom artificial intelligence chips could account for more than one-third of the computing market share by the end of this decade.

Frank Downing, ARK's Director of Next Generation Internet Research, stated in a post on X that the company expects "over one-third of the computing market to be comprised of custom chips by 2030."

He defined custom chips as non-GPU semiconductors—essentially alternatives to products from NVIDIA and AMD—while noting that industry boundaries are "becoming blurred."

"Everyone knows about Google's TPU, but Amazon is the sleeping giant that's awakening," Downing wrote.

A chart shared by Downing indicates that traditional server market share is rapidly being eroded by accelerated computing, with Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) projected to compete equally with GPUs by 2030, continuously expanding their market presence.

Wood reposted this message, adding: "NVIDIA will face competition."

Wood's comments came after Amazon and OpenAI announced a multi-year partnership.

Amazon committed to investing up to $50 billion in OpenAI and expanding existing computing agreements to $100 billion over the next eight years.

A key aspect of the agreement is that OpenAI will use Amazon's Trainium custom chips, including the next-generation version expected to launch in 2027. OpenAI will utilize approximately 2 gigawatts of Trainium computing capacity, underscoring the scale of Amazon's investment.

Meanwhile, Alphabet Inc.'s Google continues to position its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) as alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs, with reports indicating that Meta has agreed to lease TPUs for advanced AI development.

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