Airlines stocks in Hong Kong experienced a collective downturn. As of press time, CHINA EAST AIR (00670) dropped 3.32% to HKD 4.66, while CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) declined 2.6% to HKD 5.24. AIR CHINA (00753) also fell 1.25% to HKD 6.32.

The decline follows recent data showing a continued slump in flight volumes between mainland China and Japan. According to the latest monitoring figures, the number of flights from mainland China to Japan during the 49th week (December 1–7) reached a new low of 1,006 flights. Additionally, the cancellation rate for China-Japan routes in December is projected to rise to 30.4%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous statistical period (December 1).

On December 5, multiple Chinese airlines, including the "Big Three" state-owned carriers, announced an extension of their free refund and rescheduling policies for Japan-bound flights until the end of March 2026.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector’s long-term prospects. Some believe that while short-term disruptions persist, the aviation industry’s long-term investment value remains intact. With expectations of reduced losses in Q4 2025 and a potential full-year turnaround, China’s aviation sector may enter a "super cycle." Factors such as market-based ticket pricing, steady demand growth, and optimized passenger structures are expected to drive sustainable profitability for airlines.

Meanwhile, some brokerages suggest that airlines may shift capacity to Southeast Asian and domestic markets amid reduced demand for Japan routes. However, given the subdued performance of Japan routes in 2025, the overall impact on the industry is expected to be limited.