Goldman Sachs' top ten technology trends for 2026 focus on core sectors such as AI servers, optical communication, Apple's foldable screens, semiconductors, intelligent driving, and satellite communication, revealing structural investment opportunities under technological innovation and supply chain transformation.

According to the Zhui Feng Trading Desk, the Goldman Sachs analyst team led by Allen Chang points out in a recent report that AI server shipments are set to experience explosive growth in 2026, with the penetration rate of ASIC chips expected to rise to 40%, driving a year-on-year surge of over 200% in shipments of 800G/1.6T optical modules. The accelerated adoption of specialized ASIC chips will propel the AI server and optical communication industries to new trillion-dollar heights.

In the consumer electronics sector, Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is anticipated to become a powerful catalyst for the smartphone market and a key focus of attention, while the PC market continues to face severe challenges, though industry leaders are expected to demonstrate resilience.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that AI-related technologies and demand for high-end hardware will continue to drive performance growth in Chinese supply chains for semiconductors, optical communication, and PCBs. Concurrently, emerging sectors like intelligent driving, AI software, and low-earth orbit satellites are accelerating their deployment, fueled by policy support and technological breakthroughs, offering diversified investment opportunities.

The AI server market is undergoing a structural adjustment. Goldman Sachs forecasts that rack-level AI server shipments will surge dramatically from 19,000 units in 2025 to 50,000 units in 2026.

A key trend within this is platform diversification and enhanced network connectivity. ASIC chips, leveraging their energy efficiency advantages for specific AI workloads, are projected to achieve a 40% penetration rate in 2026, climbing further to 45% in 2027.

This trend will lead customers to rely more heavily on leading suppliers with robust design and manufacturing capabilities, such as Hon Hai and Industrial Fulian.

The optical communication sector will directly benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure. As data center networks upgrade from 400G to 800G/1.6T, coupled with increased adoption of Silicon Photonics and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies, demand for optical transceivers is poised for explosive growth.

Goldman Sachs stresses that the rising penetration of ASIC chips will further underpin demand for optical modules, as ASICs rely more heavily on network capabilities to execute AI workloads.

As computing density increases, thermal management technology is approaching an inflection point for upgrades. Goldman Sachs notes that the penetration rate of liquid cooling technology will rise significantly, particularly in the ASIC AI server segment. To address the thermal challenges posed by higher computational power, the supply chain will accelerate its shift towards liquid cooling solutions, benefiting component suppliers like AVC and Auras.

In the ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) sector, geopolitics and supply chain resilience have become critical considerations. Goldman Sachs believes that manufacturers with firm commitments or production capacity plans in the United States will outperform the market. ODMs with strong R&D capabilities, vertical integration advantages, and comprehensive exposure to chipset platforms, such as Hon Hai, Wistron, and Wiwynn, are expected to be more favored by the market.

The PC market faces multiple headwinds in 2026. Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that the Windows 10 replacement cycle is nearing its end, growth expectations for AI PCs are already priced in by the market, and rising memory costs may lead to reduced product specifications or price increases. In this context, only global market leaders like Lenovo, with their stronger supply chain bargaining power and exposure to high-end products, are likely to maintain resilience in a challenging environment.

The report indicates that Apple will launch a foldable iPhone in 2026, with projected shipments of 11 to 35 million units, positioning it as a powerful catalyst for the smartphone market. The continued increase in penetration of high-end foldable models is expected to drive performance growth for related component suppliers.

Goldman Sachs points out that a form factor change for the iPhone will be a core driver; specifically, the launch of a foldable iPhone is anticipated to attract consumers and support end-demand. Although rising memory costs pose a potential risk, new features like foldable screens and the strength of premium brands will lower consumer price sensitivity.

Despite differing market views on long-term supply-demand dynamics, Goldman Sachs believes demand for PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) remains solid.

Particularly, high-end CCL (Copper-Clad Laminate) and PCB suppliers will face a favorable supply-demand landscape, benefiting from growing AI server shipments and increased ASIC penetration. As CCL grades upgrade to M8+ and M9, the average selling price (ASP) for high-end products is forecast to increase by 20-30% annually in both 2026 and 2027.

China's semiconductor industry is set to maintain its growth trajectory. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the expansion plans of local leaders like SMIC and Hon Hai in advanced process nodes, as well as the rise of domestic GPU suppliers.

AI technology innovation and new demand from edge devices, such as AI glasses, will be primary drivers. Furthermore, the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors will also benefit from the trend towards supply chain localization.

The intelligent driving trend will continue to deepen in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects that the proliferation of urban NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) and Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) services will fuel growth for chipset, software, and sensor suppliers. Solutions from companies like Horizon Robotics are being adopted by more vehicle models, while the commercialization efforts of Robotaxi operators like Pony AI are accelerating, creating new growth poles for the related supply chain.

The Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite industry is entering a period of acceleration. Goldman Sachs notes that satellite launches will significantly speed up as rocket payload capacity increases and launch costs decrease.

Simultaneously, satellite specifications are being upgraded, with bandwidth evolving from single-band to multi-band (Ka, E, V, W). Given the typical 5-6 year lifecycle of satellites, replacement demand could begin as early as 2026, which will drive the construction of constellation network infrastructure.