On August 18, international spot gold continued to fluctuate above the $4,400 mark overnight, with persistent probing ultimately breaking the gap. During the Asian session this morning, gold surged past $4,430, signaling that any pullback below $4,430 would present a buying opportunity. While the four-hour chart leans bullish, the two technical lines running parallel upward suggest that any sudden sell-off could mirror last Friday's scenario, where a nearly 100-point retracement occurred within a short timeframe.
Given this setup, the strategy for this week is strictly long-only, avoiding short positions entirely. Long entries can be pursued either by chasing momentum for short-term trades or by positioning at lower pullback levels. Chasing longs is suitable only for scalping, while high-level shorts may also yield quick profits. For medium-to-long-term positions, patience is advised to await a pullback to the $4,373/$4,380 zone. Once $4,380 holds, it becomes the lifeline for bulls; even if a break triggers a test lower, the price must ultimately reclaim and stay above this level. Therefore, a collective bullish outlook for gold is warranted, with sustained upside expected at least through this month.
On the international front, whether the US dollar and Treasury market ultimately collapse—and when—remains speculative or theoretical, not an immediate concern. From the dollar's reflux tides to the yen's breakdown, the outcome is irrelevant; the key takeaway is that hot money is flowing into the gold market, reigniting its bullish trend. Alternatively, lower gold prices have allowed astute players to accumulate high-quality assets. This month, gold may continue to push higher, though September's trajectory could shift. With markets broadly hyping a financial crisis, gold remains the premier liquid asset and the cornerstone of global reserve currencies; some selling is natural. September may see a modest pullback from late-August highs, but revisiting the $4,000 integer level is unlikely until the current cycle concludes. For long-term positioning, it is still not too late to enter, as once the trend is established, the only consideration is entry timing. After setting the strategy, the rest hinges on holding positions and enduring the test of time, since gold cannot rally in one spurt but moves in consolidation, requiring accumulation before any breakout.
Technically, a break above $4,450 this month is only a matter of time. Whether the ultimate peak reaches $4,600 or $4,800 remains to be seen. Moreover, entering September, the market may resume hyping the Fed's rate hike narrative, pressuring gold before a no-hike announcement triggers a rebound—a cycle likely to persist through year-end. To reiterate a personal stance: the Fed lacks the capacity to hike rates and can only bluff to achieve its desired effect, a playbook the market has fully absorbed.
On the four-hour chart, while the trend points upward, the pattern is precarious; any news-driven sell-off could spark panic selling, potentially retesting support at $4,380 and the $4,300 integer level. These two levels are critical watch points this week and offer favorable entry zones. Intraday, gold has repeatedly reclaimed the $4,400 handle. To the upside, resistance is eyed at $4,440-$4,450, while short-term support lies at $4,390-$4,395, with key support at $4,340-$4,350. Some technical pullback for consolidation is also necessary.