On October 21, oil prices declined as market sentiment was impacted by rising supplies from OPEC+ members and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. CWG Markets noted that with further pressure on global demand expectations, investor risk aversion significantly increased. Bank of America warned that if the current trend continues, Brent crude prices may fall below $50 per barrel in the coming months.

Both WTI and Brent crude prices have dropped by approximately 5% to 6% since early October, reaching five-month lows and nearly erasing gains made since late summer. Meanwhile, natural gas prices decreased to $2.989 per million British thermal units, continuing to decline over several days due to mild weather and stable production. CWG Markets indicated that this reflects a waning market confidence in the recovery of energy demand.

According to Reuters, Bank of America analysts pointed out that the supply increase from OPEC+, particularly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, is creating a "sustained surplus" in the market, with inventories potentially rising back to 2020 high levels. The bank further noted that if demand from major Asian consumers remains weak or if the U.S. imposes tariffs on its key trade partners, Brent prices may drop below $50 per barrel. CWG Markets believes that the combination of supply-side pressures and geopolitical economic risks is amplifying the volatility range of oil prices.

Simultaneously, the market is closely monitoring next month's OPEC+ meeting, where representatives are expected to discuss the pace of reducing production cuts. Yahoo Finance reported that some Gulf oil producers have increased their daily export levels by nearly 400,000 barrels since September, while Russian production remains above 9.3 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its global demand growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 to around 700,000 barrels per day in its October Oil Market Report, while raising supply forecasts and warning that the market could face unexpected oversupply. Data indicates that global crude oil inventories increased by 17.7 million barrels in August to a four-year high of 7.909 billion barrels, with September seeing a surge of 10.2 million barrels of 'floating' crude primarily due to increased exports from the Middle East and the Americas. Under the combined pressure of supply expansion and slowing demand, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting and future macroeconomic signals.