China Great Wall Securities has released a research report stating that, according to Rabobank analysis, although China has become the world's largest blueberry producer, its per capita consumption remains below 0.5kg. Compared to the 1.3kg per capita consumption in the United States, this indicates substantial room for future growth. Domestic blueberries, with their unique sweet and crisp texture and off-season supply capabilities, have gained significant popularity in recent years and have become a representative product of fruit consumption upgrading. From an operational perspective, the requirement for integrated management across breeding, cultivation, cold chain logistics, and channel development creates natural barriers to entry for the industry. While blueberry prices exhibit seasonal fluctuations, the high entry barriers and relatively orderly industry capacity expansion point to broad prospects for the blueberry consumer market.

The main viewpoints of China Great Wall Securities are as follows:

**Substantial Demand Potential for Domestic Blueberries, with Peak Demand Around Chinese New Year** Driven by rising national health consciousness and improved living standards, blueberries are gradually becoming a market favorite due to their unique taste and rich nutritional value. According to Rabobank analysis, despite China being the largest global blueberry producer, per capita consumption under 0.5kg, compared to 1.3kg in the U.S., suggests extensive growth potential. Domestic blueberries, leveraging their distinct sweet, crisp profile and counter-seasonal supply, have frequently broken into mainstream popularity recently, emblematic of premium fruit consumption trends. Based on the "2024 China Blueberry Industry Development Report," blueberry prices show certain seasonal fluctuations influenced by planting cycles. The November to April period marks the Yunnan blueberry season, with prices relatively high, peaking in February. From May to July, as fruit from other regions enters the market, prices decline steadily. Between August and October, as the summer harvest concludes, prices stabilize and begin to recover.

**High Barriers in Land Acquisition for Blueberry Industry, Scarcity of High-Quality Seedlings** Cultivating premium blueberries demands specific climatic, altitude, and soil conditions. Yunnan, with its unique low-latitude plateau climate, is a major global production region. However, high-quality land suitable for large-scale, facility-based cultivation has become increasingly scarce due to recent development. Taking industry leader Nuopuxin as an example, its individual cultivation bases typically exceed 300 mu. Regarding seedlings, leading global blueberry varieties, such as high-quality evergreen types, are mostly owned by international berry giants (e.g., Driscoll's, Costa) and are managed under patent and licensing systems. The cycle from breeding new varieties, introducing them, to achieving stable production is long. Companies lacking core seedling resources find it difficult to directly enter the mid-to-high-end market, leading to a relatively orderly pace of industry capacity expansion.

**Significant Upfront Investment in Blueberry Cultivation, High Precision in Full-Chain Management** Blueberry cultivation, represented by substrate cultivation models, involves significantly higher initial capital expenditure compared to conventional crops. The comprehensive fixed cost for establishing a plantation typically ranges between RMB 70,000 to 100,000 per mu. This includes costs for high-standard greenhouse facilities, precision drip irrigation systems, integrated water-fertilizer control systems, high-quality variety patent licensing fees, and tissue-culture seedling procurement. Furthermore, to ensure berry quality, companies must cover expenses for harvesting labor and invest in cold chain storage and transportation infrastructure. Operationally, blueberry growth is constrained by biological cycles, requiring several years from establishment to stable yield. Substrate cultivation demands extremely meticulous management of water-fertilizer ratios, plant protection monitoring, and labor organization during harvest. The requirement for integrated management spanning breeding, cultivation, cold chain, and channel development creates inherent entry barriers for the industry.

**Continued Optimism Regarding Blueberry Industry Demand Growth and Competitive Landscape Optimization** Although blueberry prices show seasonal volatility, the industry's high entry barriers and relatively disciplined capacity expansion underscore the vast potential of the blueberry consumer market. The outlook remains positive for leading blueberry companies possessing more of the following characteristics: 1) Enterprises that entered the blueberry industry early and possess sufficient high-quality blueberry orchard land; 2) Industry leaders committed to full-chain operations encompassing harvesting, processing, cold chain, and brand marketing, with efficient cost control capabilities; 3) High-quality enterprises that have established distribution channels with premium clients at the core retail end and possess the capability for high-quality blueberry production and export.

Risks include intensifying industry competition, environmental force majeure events, declining product prices, and setbacks in seedling research and development.