The 2025 Hong Kong stock market has witnessed an "IPO financing feast," with over 60 new listings raising more than HK$150 billion in total. On September 30, three companies went public simultaneously: Zijin Gold International (02259), HIPINE (02583), and AutoAI (02889). Among them, HIPINE's 258.11% surge on its debut trading day exemplified the heated new stock market conditions.

While robust new stock markets typically generate significant "IPO profit effects," retail investors may find it challenging to follow the investment rhythm of stocks like HIPINE, which surged over 250% on its first day while targeting Hong Kong Stock Connect inclusion by year-end.

**Supply Concentration Behind the Gold Watch Brand**

According to 2024 GMV data, HIPINE became China's largest gold watch brand with a 27.08% market share. However, in the secondary market, opportunities and risks coexist behind HIPINE's gold watch business.

Reviewing HIPINE's IPO process, the company conducted its public offering from September 19-24, proposing to globally offer 10.6 million shares, with 10% allocated to Hong Kong public offering and 90% to international placement, plus a 15% over-allotment option. This meant HIPINE's public offering portion was only 10,600 lots, representing very limited supply.

Under these circumstances, HIPINE's initial margin loan amount was approximately HK$492 million with 15.69 times oversubscription. On September 23 and 24, the margin loan amounts surged to HK$15.552 billion and HK$45.939 billion respectively, with corresponding oversubscription multiples reaching 495.65 times and 1,464.14 times. By the offering's conclusion, the final oversubscription multiple reached 2,505.9 times.

However, September 29 saw three new stocks listing simultaneously, with HIPINE competing against the more certain Zijin Gold International, causing significant capital flows toward the latter and further diverting funds that might have participated in HIPINE, thereby intensifying first-day supply-demand imbalances and price volatility.

From another perspective, investors must be cautious about the "supply concentration" chip structure that theoretically allows major funds to enter the "aggressive rally" phase directly without effort in collecting chips during HIPINE's early listing period. They need only deploy minimal capital to drive up share prices, attract market attention, and create speculative enthusiasm for newly listed stocks.

From actual market performance, after surging 258.11% on its debut, HIPINE's share price rose another 71.13% on the second trading day, only declining 7% on the third trading day. However, behind the apparent steady price appreciation with minor fluctuations, volume changes better reflect on-floor capital conditions.

During HIPINE's first three trading days showing "two rises, one decline," corresponding trading volumes consistently decreased from 2.8228 million shares on the debut day to 620,000 shares on October 3, displaying obvious price-volume divergence. This signal deserves investor attention, as volume contraction with rising prices typically appears in late-stage uptrends, occasionally during rebound processes in declining markets, and sometimes in early uptrend phases.

In continuous upward movements, volume contraction with rising prices often indicates high major fund control with substantial circulating chips locked by major players. However, since volume contraction with rising prices represents price-volume divergence, if trading volume expands again in subsequent advances, this likely indicates major fund distribution at high levels. Therefore, investors should focus more on volume changes for HIPINE's future trend points.

**Can Stock Connect Expectations Support Share Prices?**

While HIPINE's current volume trend changes suggest potential subsequent price declines, this may not necessarily mean retail investors can only be forced into squeeze-out selling. HIPINE's Stock Connect inclusion expectations might serve as an important reference for judging future trends.

Objectively, early-stage HIPINE was speculated due to supply concentration, with speculation directly targeting Hong Kong Stock Connect. According to Stock Connect established logic, the Hang Seng Composite Index conducts regular reviews at fixed time points annually, such as June 30 and December 31.

Latest data shows that as of October 4, 2025, Hong Kong-listed companies seeking Stock Connect inclusion require approximately HK$9.413 billion in average daily market capitalization during the review period. According to calculations, HIPINE's current average daily market value during the review period ending December 2025 is HK$9.876 billion, already above the current "inclusion threshold," with monthly stock liquidity fully meeting standards.

Notably, on October 3, HIPINE's maximum daily decline reached 16.59%, with corresponding minimum market value of HK$8.9 billion, clearly below inclusion standards. However, afternoon stabilization and recovery ensured it ultimately met "inclusion standards."

Therefore, if the company seeks inclusion in the Stock Connect list during December's regular review, its average daily market value must remain stably above the corresponding inclusion threshold, requiring stable overall market and sector performance plus solid company fundamentals.

On October 2, Hong Kong stock markets performed strongly with all three major indices rising, including the Hang Seng Index breaking through 27,000 points. Sector-wise, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and biomedical sectors led gains, while Hong Kong gold concept stocks continued their rally, with China Silver Group rising over 32%, and Tianqi Lithium, Tongguan Gold, and Zijin Gold International all gaining over 10%.

Recently, Goldman Sachs stated in a report that gold remains their most favored long commodity recommendation. Due to strong private investor interest, gold prices have further upside potential, possibly exceeding the firm's expectations. Goldman Sachs analysts noted unexpectedly strong inflows into gold ETFs, surpassing previous model predictions.

Against this backdrop, prospectus data shows HIPINE achieved revenues of RMB324 million, RMB445 million, and RMB457 million from 2022-2024 respectively, showing year-over-year growth. In the first five months of 2025, revenue grew 21.6% year-over-year to RMB231 million, demonstrating short-term growth resilience.

Meanwhile, HIPINE's net profits from 2022-2024 were RMB24.541 million, RMB52.099 million, and RMB49.348 million respectively, showing some volatility, with 2024 declining 5.3% year-over-year. In the first five months of 2025, net profit reached RMB42.8 million, already recovering to 86.7% of 2024's full-year level, indicating significant short-term profit growth momentum.

Simultaneously, the company's gross margin continued improving from 19.8% in 2022 to 27.2% in 2024, and further to 31.01% in the first five months of 2025, representing a very positive signal.

Overall, whether considering Hong Kong's overall market, sector performance, or company fundamentals, stable expectations exist, providing favorable external conditions for year-end "Stock Connect inclusion." Under high major fund control, HIPINE maintaining stable sideways trading would likely provide excellent probability for Stock Connect inclusion by year-end.