Citigroup analyst Ephrem Ravi estimates that Rio Tinto PLC's iron ore business will account for only 48% of its EBITDA in 2026, a significant drop from 81% in 2023. Despite progress on the massive Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the mining giant is diversifying its profits, driven by growth in its copper operations.

Ravi noted that this structural shift also reflects expectations for commodity price trends, including weaker prospects for iron ore. He stated that Rio Tinto's copper business is "steadily moving toward solid growth," with projected profit increases of 7% and 5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Ravi believes investors will gain clearer insights into the company's growth plans during its investor briefing on December 4. Citigroup has assigned a "neutral" rating to Rio Tinto.