On September 10, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 1%, while live pigs, para-xylene (PX), and asphalt gained nearly 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate and polysilicon dropped over 4%, palm oil fell over 2%, and coking coal and soybean oil declined nearly 2%.
Everbright Futures Analysis:
At 9:20 AM on Tuesday, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., a controlled subsidiary of CATL, held a "Jiangxiawo Lithium Mine Resumption Work Meeting" to specifically advance the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine. According to informed sources, CATL's mining rights certificate and mining permit approval for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine are progressing smoothly, with resumption expected soon, "faster than the market's quickest expectations." Affected by news of mine resumption, lithium carbonate opened significantly lower on Wednesday, maintained low-level fluctuations during trading, once approaching the daily limit down, with intraday decline exceeding 7%.
From a fundamental perspective, lithium carbonate weekly production increased slightly week-over-week, rising by 389 tons to 19,419 tons. Specifically, spodumene-based lithium extraction increased by 160 tons to 12,409 tons, lepidolite-based extraction rose by 100 tons to 2,600 tons, salt lake extraction increased by 78 tons to 2,593 tons, and recycling-based extraction grew by 51 tons to 1,817 tons. September lithium carbonate production is expected to increase 1.7% month-over-month to 86,730 tons, as previous production reduction concerns have diminished, replaced by supply increase pressure.
On the demand side, September ternary cathode material production is expected to decline 1.5% month-over-month to 72,330 tons. Weekly ternary material production decreased by 154 tons to 16,513 tons, with inventory falling by 188 tons to 17,644 tons. Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase 6% month-over-month to 335,250 tons, with weekly production rising by 199 tons to 76,533 tons and inventory increasing by 263 tons to 94,756 tons.
Regarding inventory, weekly destocking accelerated, decreasing by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. Downstream inventory increased by 2,407 tons to 55,207 tons, intermediate inventory rose by 410 tons to 45,410 tons, while upstream inventory decreased by 3,861 tons to 39,475 tons. Following last night's announcement of CATL's meeting regarding the Jiangxiawo lithium mine resumption, while there are resumption expectations, this will further diminish the actual impact of mining certificate issues for other projects. Short-term prices may retreat, but actual resumption timing requires further attention.