Abstract

Crocs, Inc. will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s actuals, the company’s latest forecast ranges, and recent institutional views to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s latest guidance set embedded in consensus tracking, Crocs, Inc. is projected to deliver fourth-quarter revenue of $916.03 million, down 04.77% year over year, with EBIT of $141.82 million and adjusted EPS of $1.89, implying year-over-year declines of 23.86% and 16.22%, respectively. Gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance have not been explicitly quantified by management for the quarter, but the prior quarter’s gross margin of 58.52% and net margin of 14.64% set the starting point for modeling; the forecast implies a moderated margin mix consistent with lower operating leverage year over year.

The company’s core drivers remain its two-channel model. Direct-to-consumer is expected to be the principal highlight with merchandising and marketing efficiency supportive of traffic and average selling prices, while wholesale is positioned defensively as partners optimize inventories. The segment with the clearest upside skew is direct-to-consumer, which generated $562.54 million last quarter; a stabilization to modest year-over-year growth would be a positive surprise against a cautious top-line guide.

Last Quarter Review

Crocs, Inc. reported last quarter revenue of $996.30 million, a gross profit margin of 58.52%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $146.00 million, a net profit margin of 14.64%, and adjusted EPS of $2.92, with revenue down 06.20% year over year and adjusted EPS down 18.89% year over year. The quarter exceeded prior consensus on both revenue and earnings, with EBIT of $207.66 million and adjusted EPS outperforming estimates, demonstrating disciplined expense control alongside resilient channel mix.

A notable operational highlight was the strength in direct-to-consumer, which delivered $562.54 million and a mix pivot that supported merchandise margin resilience despite softer wholesale. Main business trends reflected a healthy direct-to-consumer contribution and steady wholesale at $433.76 million, with the former driving most of the profitability mix and the latter stabilizing through inventory normalization.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Direct-to-consumer as the margin anchor

Direct-to-consumer is likely to remain the margin anchor for Crocs, Inc. this quarter. The prior quarter’s gross profit margin of 58.52% and the reported net profit margin of 14.64% were underpinned by healthy sell-through in owned stores and digital, a favorable product mix, and pricing discipline. With revenue modeled to decline 04.77% year over year to $916.03 million, the key debate is whether mix and promotions allow the gross margin profile to hold near the recent level or drift lower with seasonal discounting. Given the brand’s marketing velocity and frequent product refreshes, management can tactically modulate promotions to protect unit economics. Store productivity and digital conversion are critical levers; if traffic sustains, the company could preserve part of the margin despite lower operating leverage. Diminishing freight and input cost volatility further supports gross margin stability, but the EBIT forecast of $141.82 million signals that SG&A deleverage may weigh on operating margin year over year.

Most promising business: Channel and product initiatives within direct-to-consumer

Within the company’s portfolio, direct-to-consumer carries the largest near-term growth optionality, evidenced by last quarter’s $562.54 million contribution and mix-led profitability. The product engine—seasonal colorways, collaborations, and category extensions—remains a demand catalyst that boosts average selling prices and full-price sell-through when executed with scarcity and relevance. Digital marketing precision and loyalty engagement can lift conversion without proportionally increasing acquisition cost, which is essential when absolute revenue is down year over year. If the company can cycle through tougher comparisons with fewer promotions, the direct-to-consumer margin uplift could offset some wholesale softness, yielding upside to EPS versus the $1.89 projection even on flat to down revenue. In this context, inventory freshness and on-time flow are pivotal to limit markdown risk late in the quarter.

Stock-price drivers this quarter: Revenue cadence, margin resilience, and visibility

Short-term stock performance is likely to hinge on three quantifiable factors. First, revenue cadence relative to the $916.03 million estimate will be scrutinized; a narrow miss could be offset if the company beats on EBIT or EPS through expense control, while a beat would need to be accompanied by clean channel inventories. Second, gross margin commentary matters: investors will evaluate whether the 58.52% level is sustainable given mix and promotions, and whether net margin can remain close to the 14.64% prior quarter starting point amid deleverage. Third, forward visibility will be decisive—order book tone in wholesale and demand signals in direct-to-consumer, along with any color on price architecture and product flow, will shape the trajectory for the first half of 2026. Any update indicating normalized wholesale orders and steady digital traffic could underpin multiple support even if near-term revenue falls 04.77% year over year.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary within the coverage window skews bullish. Buy ratings were reiterated by KeyBanc and Needham, and Bank of America also maintained a Buy stance with an updated target, while Williams Trading maintained a Hold view. The balance of opinions tallies as three bullish to one neutral, indicating a majority bullish stance.

KeyBanc maintained a Buy rating, citing attractive valuation relative to growth potential and confidence in direct-to-consumer execution that could protect margins against a softer wholesale environment. Needham reiterated a Buy on expectations for a constructive fourth-quarter print and a setup for stabilization into early 2026, with particular emphasis on expense discipline and product catalysts that can sustain engagement. Bank of America reaffirmed Buy, emphasizing anticipated revenue normalization and the strength of strategic leadership to navigate inventory and channel dynamics. These institutions collectively point to a scenario where even with a forecast revenue decline of 04.77% to $916.03 million and EPS forecast at $1.89, delivery against margin and expense targets could exceed market fears.

The majority view frames the quarter as a test of margin durability more than a pure revenue growth event. Analysts expect near-term year-over-year declines in EBIT of 23.86% to $141.82 million to be transient if the company executes on product calendars and calibrated promotions. The implied setup favors upside if direct-to-consumer momentum keeps gross profit mix favorable and wholesale order books show signs of improvement. As a result, investor attention is likely to converge on gross margin commentary, inventory position, and any quantification of early first-quarter trends, with the consensus leaning that the company can manage through a modest top-line contraction while defending profitability better than feared.