Abstract

Newmark Group Inc. will report results on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview reviews last quarter’s performance, outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability and adjusted EPS this quarter, and evaluates segment momentum and risks heading into the release.

Market Forecast

Consensus indicators point to a solid acceleration in Newmark Group Inc.’s top line and earnings for the current quarter: revenue is projected at $996.92 million, representing 26.07% year-over-year growth; EPS is estimated at $0.65, up 36.30% year-over-year; and EBIT is forecast at $147.18 million, up 37.46% year-over-year. The company does not provide tool-based forecasts for gross margin or net margin this quarter; however, the trajectory implied by forecast EBIT and EPS suggests continued margin expansion compared with last year’s baseline.

The main business mix remains diversified across management services, capital markets, and leasing. Based on the company’s revenue composition last quarter, management services and fees are expected to remain the stabilizer of revenue and earnings quality, while capital markets and leasing are set to contribute most to growth as transactional activity revives. The most promising segment in the near term is capital markets commissions, supported by visible deal flow and financing mandates; last quarter it generated $301.33 million, and pipeline indicators and forecast growth imply a healthy year-over-year uplift from that base.

Last Quarter Review

Newmark Group Inc. delivered a stronger sequential quarter with revenue of $863.46 million (up 25.89% year-over-year), a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $46.15 million, a net profit margin of 5.35%, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 (up 27.27% year-over-year). Quarter-on-quarter, net profit rebounded by 121.69%, highlighting an inflection in profitability alongside the revenue acceleration.

A notable highlight was the breadth of recovery across transactional and recurring lines, with EPS surpassing the pre-quarter estimate and revenue exceeding the indicated baseline. By segment, management services, service fees and other contributed $318.13 million; capital markets commissions contributed $301.33 million; and leasing and other commissions contributed $244.01 million. The composition indicates a balanced growth profile, with management services offering steadier fee income and capital markets transactions re-accelerating from a softer prior period.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Balanced fee base and cyclical transaction recovery

Newmark Group Inc.’s core revenue streams span management services and fees, capital markets commissions, and leasing commissions. The most recent quarter’s mix—$318.13 million from management services, $301.33 million from capital markets commissions, and $244.01 million from leasing—underscores a blend of recurring and cyclical revenue. This blend has begun to reflate aggregate earnings power as deal-making improves across debt and equity placement, refinancings, and investment sales. The company’s fee-based platform provides a buffer against transaction cyclicality, helping maintain utilization and operating leverage when activity rises.

Looking ahead to the current quarter, the revenue estimate of $996.92 million implies acceleration versus the prior quarter’s $863.46 million, consistent with seasonal strength and an improving backdrop for financing and brokerage flows. The estimated EPS of $0.65 and EBIT of $147.18 million point to scalable margin economics when volumes rise, particularly as sales compensation aligns with revenues and fixed costs stabilize. A 26.07% year-over-year revenue growth forecast aligns with strengthening pipelines evident in recent financing announcements and suggests that management services will continue to anchor visibility while cyclical businesses benefit from market thawing.

Within the main business, operating execution this quarter will likely be judged on the mix of fee revenues, the breadth of client mandates, and conversion rates from pipeline to closed transactions. Investors will pay attention to sequential momentum in both capital markets and leasing fees and to the degree that management services maintains a high attach rate to client relationships. A sustained uptick in capital flows and leasing demand can support incremental margins, given the fixed-cost absorption benefits and the variable nature of compensation expense tied to production.

Most promising business: Capital markets commissions led by visible financing activity

Capital markets commissions appear best positioned to drive upside, with recent deal activity providing concrete markers of demand. During the current period window, Newmark Group Inc. announced it arranged a $690.00 million refinancing for a 13-asset multifamily portfolio and separately arranged a $415.00 million refinancing for a 13-asset open-air shopping center portfolio. These transactions illustrate the company’s capacity to source and execute large-scale debt placements across asset classes and geographies, and they align with a broader reopening of the commercial real estate financing market.

This activity matters because the forecast revenue growth and EBIT expansion assume continued normalization of capital markets volumes. As lenders rebalance risk and borrowers seek to term out maturities, advisory and brokerage firms with deep lender relationships can capture a higher share of mandates. If Newmark converts its active pipeline at historical rates, capital markets commissions could outpace overall company growth and provide positive operating leverage for the quarter, especially as revenue scales with limited additional fixed overhead.

That said, conversion risk remains. Market breadth can vary by asset class and region, and the cost of capital could still be a constraining factor for certain transactions. Nevertheless, the size and quality of recent financings are supportive of the forecasted 26.07% revenue growth and 37.46% EBIT growth. They also demonstrate differentiated access to institutional borrowers and lenders, which can sustain fee momentum if rates and credit spreads remain within manageable ranges. The focus for investors will be on the fee rate realized per transaction, the velocity of closings within the quarter, and commentary on late-stage mandate volume.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Volume trends, margin trajectory, and macro sensitivity

Three factors are likely to shape the stock’s reaction this quarter. First, transaction volume trends across capital markets and leasing will be central. The revenue estimate of $996.92 million implies healthy throughput; confirmation in the reported numbers that both capital markets and leasing are accelerating would underpin the EPS estimate of $0.65 and support sentiment. Conversely, any slippage in conversions or delays in closings that push revenue recognition beyond the quarter could weigh on near-term results.

Second, margin trajectory bears close scrutiny. The last quarter’s net margin was 5.35%, and EPS grew faster than revenue as scale benefits kicked in. With EBIT estimated at $147.18 million, investors will watch how compensation ratios and non-compensation costs evolve. A favorable mix shift toward high-margin advisory and a steady contribution from management services can lift operating margins. The sustainability of margin expansion will hinge on productivity per producer, the balance between fixed and variable costs, and the degree of price discipline on fees.

Third, macro sensitivity remains a variable. Headlines in early February highlighted a sector-wide drawdown in commercial real estate services stocks, reflecting risk-off positioning tied to broader capital market concerns. This volatility signals that even as fundamentals improve, sentiment can fluctuate with interest rate expectations and credit conditions. Newmark’s ability to articulate a resilient pipeline, discuss lender appetite, and provide color on client demand for refinancing and acquisitions could mitigate macro anxieties. Commentary on outlook for the next two quarters, particularly around investment sales and debt markets, will likely shape the multiple investors are willing to assign.

Analyst Opinions

Across the available period since January 1, 2026, published items have leaned more bullish than bearish on Newmark Group Inc., with the majority of commentary favoring a continued recovery in transaction-driven revenues supported by visible financing mandates and peer read-throughs from the commercial real estate services space. Recent news of large-scale financing arrangements executed by the company has been interpreted positively by market observers, while a mid-February sector sell-off introduced a more cautious tone tied to macro factors rather than company-specific deterioration.

Institutional commentary on peer companies during this window provides useful context for expectations. Peers in the broader commercial real estate and intermediation ecosystem reported solid December-quarter earnings and constructive forward commentary, reinforcing the notion that the cycle is progressing toward recovery in 2026. Against this backdrop, the forecast for Newmark Group Inc.—26.07% revenue growth and 36.30% EPS growth year-over-year for the current quarter—aligns with a bullish majority view that improving financing and transaction markets can translate into better operating leverage and earnings power.

The bullish case emphasizes three points. First, the company’s execution on substantial refinance mandates in January and February demonstrates traction in debt markets and affirms lender and borrower engagement, a precursor to conversion of late-stage pipelines. Second, the diversified revenue base—with management services providing stability—reduces earnings volatility as cyclical lines rebound, improving the quality of growth. Third, forecast metrics for revenue, EBIT, and EPS point to multiple levers of margin expansion, particularly if capital markets commissions regain share within the mix.

The minority, more cautious perspective centers on macro volatility rather than idiosyncratic issues. The sector-wide pullback in mid-February underscores sensitivity to shifts in rate expectations and concerns around commercial real estate valuations. Bears argue that execution risk remains if financing markets tighten or if transaction closing timelines extend beyond the quarter. However, this view is not the majority within the collected commentary for the covered period, and recent deal announcements suggest ongoing demand for advisory and placement services.

Overall, the dominant tone among institutional and market voices in the period is cautiously constructive, with expectations that Newmark Group Inc. can meet or exceed its projected revenue and EPS for the current quarter if deal conversion remains on track. The combination of a growing capital markets pipeline, resilient management services fees, and potential operating leverage provides a framework for upside, while investors remain watchful of macro headwinds that can affect timing and sentiment.