Technology companies that now dominate the major US equity benchmark indices are facing a significant spending decision. President Trump recently signed an executive order raising the fees companies pay for H-1B visa applicants from the previous thousands of dollars to $100,000 annually. This new regulation took effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on September 21st.

As a result, US stock index futures declined at press time, with Dow futures down 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.14%.

The Trump administration's decision aims to incentivize companies to hire American workers. Trump stated when signing the order that if companies don't want to pay $100,000, they can hire Americans instead, calling the latest policy "actually giving companies an incentive to hire Americans."

Commerce Secretary Lutnick explained that this fee is "calculated annually" and applies to both initial applications and renewals. Companies need to decide whether this person is worth paying the government $100,000 per year. If not, send them home and hire Americans instead. Lutnick added that the core of immigration policy is hiring Americans while ensuring only top talent is brought in.

However, Trump's decision will impact tech giants including Amazon.com (AMZN.US), Google (GOOGL.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Meta (META.US). These companies have long relied on the H-1B visa program to hire foreign workers, including software development engineers.

According to reports, in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025 ending June 30th, Amazon.com alone received approval for over 14,000 H-1B visas, while Microsoft and Meta each had over 5,000 approvals.

On September 20th, multiple major US tech companies including Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Apple (AAPL.US) urgently sent emails to internal employees, advising H-1B visa holders to remain in the US and suspend any departure plans to prevent difficulties returning after the policy takes effect.

Google warned in an email that employees with valid H-1B visas currently outside the US should return and enter the country before September 21st.

Facing collective corporate panic, the White House issued a clarification statement via social media on September 20th, stating that the new policy only applies to future new visa applicants, not existing visa holders, visa renewals, or even applicants already participating in the 2025 lottery. The White House also emphasized that the $100,000 is a one-time fee, not an annual fee. This statement contradicts Lutnick's previous remarks.

The question is whether the Trump administration's executive order can actually be implemented. Currently, like tariffs, this is reality until challenged in court.

According to Pew Research data, approximately 400,000 H-1B visa holders currently exist in the US, including new applicants and continuous renewals. H-1B visa holders' ultimate goal is typically to have their employers apply for green cards (EB2 or EB3 outstanding talent categories). This "locks" employees to their employers until they receive green cards. Due to severe backlogs in these green card categories, even after submitting applications, actually receiving green cards is almost just a dream.

Employers also understand that submitting green card applications in these backlogged categories can extend employee service years. H-1B visas can typically be extended up to 6 years, but green card applications allow them to submit additional I-140 forms, enabling employees to work indefinitely while waiting for green cards.

Considering the US has 400,000 H-1B visa holders, and Lutnick suggests this fee may ultimately apply to everyone (regardless of current status), this means employers would need to bear an additional $40 billion in new annual application fees. Although the White House has clarified this statement, details will emerge as this week's new executive order debate unfolds.

Additionally, cultivating sufficient domestic talent to replace H-1B visa holders is equally expensive. This means that whether companies retain all H-1B employees or not, this will become a costly consideration.

In the already highly valued US stock market, corporate stocks (especially big tech companies) are expected to perform perfectly. This additional expense and potential project development slowdowns could drag down short-term profits until solutions are found.

Moreover, rental income from properties in tech-concentrated areas (such as Silicon Valley) largely comes from this foreign talent group. If they rapidly depart, this could negatively impact residential and commercial real estate yields.

Analysts point out that some recent compensation packages (including stock compensation) can reach $500,000 or more annually. H-1B fees could serve as bonus incentives to replace stock compensation or other performance rewards. This is the most likely scenario.

US tech companies still offer by far the world's most generous compensation, so talent will continue flocking there. If the $100,000 fee is averaged into compensation pools, reducing stock compensation or performance bonuses, these employees would still receive the world's most generous compensation packages.

Another Trump administration measure is equally noteworthy. Trump's corporate gold card is issued to corporate sponsors for one or more employees. When applying, companies must pay a non-refundable processing fee for each employee. Corporate sponsors can apply for multiple employees simultaneously. After each employee completes review, they must pay a $2 million "gift" to prove the employee will bring significant benefits to America.

The corporate gold card's advantage is that companies can stop sponsoring one employee and transfer the previously paid gift to a new employee without paying another $2 million. Corporate gold cards require small annual maintenance and transfer fees.

This $2 million gift corresponds to EB2 green card applications. This may be the Trump administration's attempt to close the "backdoor" method of indefinitely retaining H-1B employees through I-140 applications. Now, retaining an excellent employee after the 6-year H-1B period expires could cost up to $2 million.

The regular "gold card" allows individuals to directly gift $1 million to the US government for permanent residency - if someone happens to have these funds and considers it economically worthwhile (which they might).

Most large tech companies would likely make employees bear this cost themselves, and employees would still accept it. Some workforce will be reduced, but artificial intelligence can already replace some non-top talent.

It's questionable whether this executive order might force large tech companies to establish their own technical schools to train domestic US workforce on a large scale. The Trump administration also seems unlikely to stop restricting H-1B employment. If desired effects aren't seen, more obstacles from the Trump administration may be on the way.