Abstract

APPL MATERIAL-T will release results on February 13, 2026 post-Market. This preview consolidates the latest company guidance and model-driven estimates for revenue, margins, net profit, and EPS, and reviews last quarter’s execution with segment performance to frame the near-term outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeling, aligned with APPL MATERIAL-T’s internal forecast set, points to current-quarter revenue of RMB 6.87 billion, down 3.78% year over year, with EBIT of RMB 2.00 billion, down 6.07% year over year, and adjusted EPS of RMB 2.20, down 3.54% year over year. Margin expectations are for a mixed setup, with focus on maintaining last quarter’s gross profit margin of 48.01% and a net profit margin near 27.90%. The company’s main businesses center on Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services, where management targets resilient service revenues to offset system-cycle softness. The most promising segment is Applied Global Services, supported by installed base growth and maintenance activity, though revenue is expected around RMB 6.39 billion with year-over-year pressure signaled by the consolidated forecast trend.

Last Quarter Review

APPL MATERIAL-T delivered last quarter revenue of RMB 6.80 billion, a gross profit margin of 48.01%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.90 billion, a net profit margin of 27.90%, and adjusted EPS of RMB 2.17, with year-over-year changes of -3.48% for revenue, -5.62% for EBIT, and -6.47% for EPS. A notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 6.63%, reflecting stable execution and cost discipline despite softer demand. Main business contributions were led by Semiconductor Systems at RMB 20.80 billion and Applied Global Services at RMB 6.39 billion, while corporate and other contributed RMB 1.19 billion; these indicate the primacy of systems revenue and the steadier cash-flow characteristics of services.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Semiconductor Systems

Semiconductor Systems remains the core revenue driver and sets the tone for the quarter’s financial profile. The short-cycle nature of wafer-fab equipment orders means near-term revenue hinges on foundry and memory customers’ capital-expenditure plans and shipment timing. With revenue volatility across nodes, pricing discipline and mix toward higher-margin tools are central to preserving the gross profit margin near 48.01%. Management’s operational focus typically centers on lead-time optimization and backlog conversion, which can support EBIT resilience even as headline revenue declines year over year by 3.78%. The installed base of advanced-node tools supports future services growth, but the present quarter’s systems demand appears tempered, consistent with the forecast contraction in revenue and EBIT.

Most Promising Business: Applied Global Services

Applied Global Services benefits from a broad installed base and recurring maintenance, spares, and upgrades revenue. This segment generally provides counter-cyclical ballast when new tool shipments slow, and it is positioned to sustain relatively higher stability against the current revenue downcycle. The forecast construct implies consolidated pressure year over year, yet services are expected to remain above RMB 6.00 billion for the quarter, supporting margin defensibility through higher attachment rates and parts productivity. Cash conversion from services typically complements systems during capex lulls, helping to sustain net profit margin near 27.90% and mitigate EPS declines to the guided RMB 2.20. Upside could come from higher-than-expected utilization, accelerated upgrades in mature nodes, and parts demand tied to productivity improvements.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three factors are likely to influence the stock reaction around the print. The first is the degree to which gross margin tracks or exceeds the 48.01% baseline; any positive variance from product mix or services attachment could offset the revenue decline and support valuation multiples. The second is forward guidance language on backlog conversion and order momentum, particularly for leading-edge nodes and memory, which could reshape expectations for the next two fiscal quarters. The third is services durability and renewal cadence; stronger signals of recurring revenue health can help anchor EPS near the RMB 2.20 mark and reinforce confidence in cash generation, while slippage would challenge the forecast narrative and skew reactions negatively. Across these levers, execution against cost controls and delivery schedules has the potential to differentiate outcomes this quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Within the available institution commentary, the skew is cautious, aligning with the company’s forecast framework that indicates year-over-year declines in revenue by 3.78%, EBIT by 6.07%, and EPS by 3.54%. Views emphasize a balanced stance, expecting services to mitigate systems softness but not fully offset it, with risk concentrated in shipment timing and capex deferrals by key customers. The cautious camp highlights the importance of margin resilience and backlog conversion to support earnings quality. Given the lack of visible upside catalysts within the six-month observation window, the majority perspective leans toward a conservative setup awaiting clearer signs of order inflection and a more robust recovery trajectory.