On April 20, tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend—the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, and prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations dimmed, severely testing the market's earlier "peace expectations." This week, attention remains on the U.S.-Iran situation, as any subsequent negotiations or developments in strait control will directly influence gold price movements.
On Monday, April 20, former U.S. President Trump claimed that U.S.-Iran talks would be held in Islamabad on the same day, with the White House stating that a representative would attend the meeting in Pakistan. However, Iranian media reported that Iran refused to participate in a second round of talks with the U.S., denying the accuracy of the negotiation reports and casting uncertainty over the prospects. Market expectations for a peace agreement were dashed, leading to a retracement of the earlier "peace premium."
Gold opened sharply lower in the morning session, plummeting nearly $100, but quickly recovered most of the losses and is currently fluctuating around the $4,800 mark. Trump's remarks triggered profit-taking by bulls at the open, causing a gap down in gold prices. However, Iran's "physical blockade" has kept safe-haven funds ready to buy on dips, resulting in the current wide-ranging fluctuations.
In the short term, gold prices are under pressure from "Trump's rhetoric" and "the Fed's hawkish stance," facing risks of further declines. Over the medium to long term, however, the physical turmoil in the Middle East and buying by global central banks suggest that every significant pullback presents an excellent "buying opportunity."
From a technical perspective, although the daily chart shows a "shooting star" pattern with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure in the $4,890–$4,900 range, the overall bullish trend remains intact. The morning low of $4,737 serves as a short-term support level, with further support at the $4,700 psychological mark. The $4,830–$4,850 range represents a key resistance zone corresponding to today's gap; if this area is not convincingly reclaimed, short-term weakness and consolidation are likely to persist.
In summary, short-term focus is on filling the gap, with attention on the $4,730–$4,840 range. The "desensitization" to geopolitical shocks suggests that gold is unlikely to experience a one-sided plunge, but upside potential above $4,900 is also limited. Therefore, in the current news-driven volatile market, blindly chasing trends is not advisable. Instead, a strategy of "selling high and buying low within the range, with an emphasis on buying on dips" is recommended. Operationally, maintain a balanced mindset: avoid blindly guessing the top or panicking into short positions. Patiently wait for prices to retreat to the strong support zone of $4,740–$4,750 to initiate long positions. If prices rebound directly above $4,830, consider shorting briefly. In this game between geopolitics and capital, adhering to principles and strictly controlling positions is key to long-term success.
Today’s key economic data and events to watch: Monday, April 20, 2026 20:30 Canada CPI Month-over-Month (March) 23:00 Speeches by German Chancellor and ECB President