In late January 2026, another outbreak of Nipah virus occurred in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal. According to reports, West Bengal has currently confirmed 5 cases of Nipah virus, with infected individuals receiving treatment in hospitals in the capital, Kolkata, and surrounding areas; one patient is in critical condition.
Furthermore, health officials from West Bengal revealed that the earliest confirmed cases in this outbreak were two healthcare workers from a private hospital near Kolkata. Investigations suggest they were likely infected by a patient who exhibited severe respiratory symptoms; this patient passed away before a Nipah virus test could be completed. Currently, nearly one hundred people in the area have been ordered to undergo home quarantine.
The fatality rate can reach up to 75%. It attacks the brain, and "there are almost no specific treatments."
Data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that the mortality rate following Nipah virus infection ranges from 40% to 75%. The World Health Organization (WHO) website notes that this is a zoonotic virus, capable of transmission both from animals (such as bats and pigs) and through "human-to-human" contact via contaminated food or bodily fluids.
Yu Kang, Director of Infectious Diseases at a top-tier hospital in China, explained to media that the terrifying aspect of the Nipah virus lies in its "neurotropism." The virus directly attacks the central nervous system, leading to acute encephalitis and brain edema. Patients can fall into coma or experience seizures within 24 to 48 hours of infection, causing irreversible neurological damage.
In a paper published in February 2024, Lu Hongzhou, President of Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, pointed out that the initial symptoms of infection resemble atypical pneumonia, such as sore throat, vomiting, and drowsiness, but the condition can subsequently progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, or even sepsis.
Dr. Susan Wiley, a UK medical expert, stated that the most cunning feature of the Nipah virus is that its early symptoms are extremely similar to the common flu: fever, headache, and muscle pain. Patients often only become aware of physical abnormalities 4 to 14 days after exposure, and once the disease progresses to the encephalitis stage, their condition deteriorates rapidly.
Currently, there are no specific antiviral drugs or vaccines globally approved for the Nipah virus. Although the WHO has listed it as a priority disease since 2018, due to cases typically appearing as sporadic outbreaks, pharmaceutical companies have limited incentive for development; currently, only a small number of candidate vaccines are in early clinical stages.
Neighboring countries of India urgently "block" entry. Experts explain: Could it spiral out of control?
According to reports, the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand issued a statement on January 25th, announcing that comprehensive screening for flights arriving from India's West Bengal would be implemented starting the 26th. All passengers must undergo temperature checks upon landing and complete health declaration forms; anyone found with suspected symptoms will be required to provide supporting documentation.
So, could this evolve into the next global pandemic?
Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia in the UK believes that while Nipah virus is indeed a "dreadful disease," the threat of it causing a global pandemic is currently not high. He explained that the virus's R0 value (basic reproduction number) is typically below 1.0 (approximately 0.33), making sustained large-scale human-to-human transmission difficult. The R0 value is a key metric for measuring a virus's transmission capacity, representing the average number of people one infected individual would transmit the virus to in a completely susceptible population without any interventions.
According to a 2021 study by researchers in Bangladesh, the R0 value for Nipah virus in past outbreaks was approximately 0.48. An R0 value less than 1.0 indicates that, on average, each infected person transmits the virus to fewer than one other person. Unless the virus undergoes "impressive evolution," sustained human-to-human transmission is unlikely. In comparison, the R0 for common flu is around 2.0, while the Delta variant of COVID-19 had an R0 estimated as high as 5.0 to 9.0. This means that although the Nipah virus has a high fatality rate, it "spreads slowly," and its spread can be prevented through robust local containment measures.
Professor Jin Dongyan from the University of Hong Kong stated that past Nipah virus outbreaks have not been large in scale, and the current situation does not show significant differences from previous ones, suggesting the public need not be overly anxious.
Yu Kang indicated that China has established a relatively comprehensive response mechanism for dealing with the Nipah virus. From a policy framework perspective, the newly revised "Frontier Health and Quarantine Law of the People's Republic of China" in 2024 explicitly includes the Nipah virus in the entry-exit monitoring catalog. Customs screens individuals entering the country from affected areas; suspected cases are immediately isolated and transferred to designated medical facilities. Regarding the surveillance system, tertiary general hospitals and port CDC centers in China are equipped with nucleic acid testing capabilities for the virus, allowing for immediate monitoring when needed.
Simultaneously, he also pointed out that China's focus on the Nipah virus is more concentrated on the "prevention of importation" level, and the capacity building for localized prevention and control still needs strengthening. At the awareness level, residents in areas where fruit bats are distributed in southern China have insufficient awareness of the infection risks, leading to potential behavioral exposure risks. Furthermore, as China has not reported any confirmed cases, hospitals lack practical experience in managing severe cases, such as providing respiratory support and handling neurological complications.