Abstract

Comstock Resources will report its fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue growth and margin resilience against a backdrop of mixed institutional views and a cautious stance on earnings quality.

Market Forecast

Consensus embedded in the company’s forecast points to fourth-quarter revenue of USD 508.80 million, an adjusted EPS estimate of USD 0.11, and EBIT of USD 116.01 million, implying year-over-year revenue growth of 36.60%, EPS growth of 3.70%, and EBIT growth of 1.25. Forecast margins are not explicitly provided, but the outlook will be gauged against last quarter’s gross margin of 50.87% and net profit margin of 24.70%. The main business is expected to hinge on natural gas price realizations and production volumes, with the company’s revenue mix anchored by natural gas and supported by gas services. The most promising segment is natural gas, previously generating USD 307.91 million with a strong year-over-year increase implied by the revenue profile and forecast growth.

Last Quarter Review

Comstock Resources delivered revenue of USD 449.85 million, a gross profit margin of 50.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 111.00 million, a net profit margin of 24.70%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.09, with revenue up 47.75% year over year and EPS up 152.94% year over year. The quarter-on-quarter net profit change was down 10.99%, highlighting sequential pressure despite robust annual comparatives. Main business highlights included natural gas revenue of USD 307.91 million, gas services revenue of USD 141.27 million, and oil revenue of USD 0.68 million, consistent with the company’s strategic focus on gas-driven earnings and diversified service revenues.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Natural Gas Revenue and Margin Trajectory

Natural gas remains Comstock Resources’ central earnings driver, with last quarter’s natural gas revenue at USD 307.91 million and total revenue accelerating to USD 449.85 million. The fourth-quarter forecast at USD 508.80 million indicates a continuation of elevated pricing and stable-to-improving volumes across the company’s core acreage. Margin durability is a key theme: investors will benchmark fourth-quarter results against the prior quarter’s 50.87% gross margin and 24.70% net margin to assess whether pricing gains translate into operating leverage after transportation, gathering, and hedging impacts. Operational discipline around drilling and completion efficiency, together with a balanced hedge book, is likely to be crucial for preserving cash margins if spot prices fluctuate into late winter. Any commentary on per-unit lifting costs and realized pricing versus Henry Hub benchmarks will be central to gauging the sustainability of this revenue-led recovery.

Most Promising Business: Natural Gas Growth Potential

The most promising business remains natural gas, which accounted for USD 307.91 million last quarter and is positioned to drive the majority of the forecast USD 508.80 million revenue in the current quarter. Year-over-year revenue growth of 36.60% in the forecast indicates a constructive setup for gas-weighted earnings as winter demand supports pricing, subject to regional basis differentials and takeaway capacity. The company’s ability to capitalize on high-return wells, optimize completion recipes, and manage gathering and processing costs could lift EBIT above the forecast USD 116.01 million if realized prices outperform guidance. Investors should look for updates on production guidance, the balance of hedged versus unhedged volumes, and any incremental capacity expansions or new marketing arrangements that improve realizations and reduce basis risk. Strong execution in the most promising natural gas segment would complement last quarter’s margin base and support sequential earnings momentum despite the prior quarter’s net profit decline of 10.99% quarter over quarter.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Pricing, Volumes, and Hedging

The stock price this quarter will most likely be influenced by natural gas price realizations, volume delivery versus guidance, and the effectiveness of the hedging program. If realized prices track favorably against Henry Hub benchmarks, the revenue trajectory toward USD 508.80 million becomes increasingly attainable, while upside may hinge on lower-than-expected basis differentials. Volume outcomes tied to well productivity and completion timing will determine whether EBIT can meet or exceed the USD 116.01 million forecast, with the street attentive to any changes in drilling cadence or capital allocation that affect near-term output. Hedging performance can smooth earnings volatility; disclosures on the proportion of hedged volumes, hedge strike levels, and mark-to-market impacts will be watched closely because they determine how much of spot price strength translates to reported EPS around the USD 0.11 estimate. Investors will also parse unit costs, including gathering, processing, and transportation, as well as any commentary on service cost inflation, which could shape margin outcomes against the prior quarter’s 50.87% gross margin and 24.70% net margin benchmarks.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional views over the past six months have largely been neutral-to-cautious, with multiple Hold ratings and at least one Sell rating balanced by a Buy call, making the majority stance neutral. Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Siebert Williams Shank have reiterated Hold ratings with price targets around USD 19.00–USD 20.00, reflecting a view that valuation already incorporates near-term catalysts and that earnings sensitivity to gas prices warrants caution. Roth MKM maintained a Sell rating with a USD 13.00 target, pointing to risks around pricing volatility and earnings quality, while Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating with a USD 24.00 target, citing potential operational execution and leverage to supportive gas fundamentals. The majority view is therefore neutral-to-cautious, emphasizing balanced expectations into the February 11, 2026 report. Analysts generally expect the company to deliver on the USD 508.80 million revenue forecast and USD 0.11 EPS, but they remain focused on margin durability versus last quarter’s 50.87% gross margin and 24.70% net margin, as well as the sequential net profit decline of 10.99% which tempers bullishness. The consensus is that a clear signal of sustained volume growth, disciplined costs, and hedge-supported cash flow would be needed to shift ratings meaningfully toward a more constructive stance.