On Monday (September 8th), during European trading hours, spot gold traded in a narrow range above $3,600, reaching an intraday historical high of $3,616.81. The previous weak US non-farm payroll report triggered a sharp decline in the dollar to its lowest level since July 28th, but the new week opened with a modest rebound. Meanwhile, risk appetite in equity markets warmed up, leading gold to enter a consolidation phase at high levels. Nevertheless, market pricing for a 92% probability of Fed rate cuts in September and potentially three rate cuts throughout the year remains solid, keeping the bullish structure for gold intact.

**Fundamentals: Weak Non-Farm and Rate Cut Trading Resonate, Dollar Stabilization Fails to Alter Gold's Medium-Term Support**

Employment data showed significant weakness. August non-farm payrolls added only 220,000 jobs, well below expectations. More critically, historical data was revised downward - June employment declined by 13,000, marking the first monthly negative growth since December 2020, indicating marginal weakness in the US labor market.

Employment and wages both converged. The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, while labor force participation slightly increased from 62.2% to 62.3%. Average hourly earnings growth slowed from 3.9% to 3.7% year-over-year. Cooling wage momentum combined with slower employment expansion weakened inflation stickiness and the positive feedback loop of wage increases-inflation-rate hikes.

Policy expectations rapidly repriced. Driven by the above data, markets quickly increased bets on more aggressive Fed easing - not only is a September rate cut viewed as a high-probability event, but three rate cuts this year have become mainstream consensus, with discussions of "low-probability significant rate cuts" beginning to emerge. Real interest rates and holding cost logic therefore support gold prices.

Dollar stabilization appears more like technical correction. Affected by profit-taking and new-week position adjustments, the dollar moderately recovered from Friday's phase lows. Simultaneously, stronger equity markets temporarily cooled safe-haven demand, creating marginal constraints on gold. However, against the backdrop of rate cut expectations and continued net gold purchases by global official sectors, a sustained strong rebound in the dollar remains difficult, leaving gold with a "fundamental cushion" on the downside.

This week's focus shifts to US inflation. After employment cooling, inflation readings will determine the "granularity" of easing pace. If inflation falls synchronously, market confidence in the rate cut path will be reconfirmed. If inflation shows unexpected resilience, gold may experience a more standardized high-level pullback and rebalancing, but as long as the easing direction remains unchanged, medium-term bulls won't be damaged.

**Technical Analysis:**

From the daily chart perspective, gold maintains its uptrend, showing a typical trend acceleration pattern of "walking along the upper Bollinger Band" after volume-driven rallies. Indicator parameters show: Bollinger upper/lower bands and middle line are located at 3583.57/3237.36/3410.47 respectively. Current prices have effectively stood above the upper band, with Bollinger Band width clearly expanding, reflecting trend forces still dominating. The nearest high above at 3616.81 serves as short-term resistance and the bullish-bearish dividing line. Below, the 3550.00 level serves as support after recent breakout, with dynamic support from the upper band at 3583.57 above it. If oscillation pullback deepens, attention should focus on trend support at the Bollinger middle line of 3410.47.

Regarding momentum, MACD's DIFF/DEA are at 59.90/36.53 respectively, with the histogram at 46.73 continuing to expand and all above the zero axis, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, RSI(14) at 78.14 is in significant overbought territory, suggesting short-term need for pullback/sideways digestion. Candlestick patterns show consecutive positive candles with limited upper shadows, with trends not showing "dark cloud cover" or "engulfing" signals. High levels are more likely to evolve in a "breakthrough-retest-rise again" rhythm. Comprehensive judgment: 3616.81 as upper resistance, 3583.57-3550.00 forming the first support zone, 3410.47 as the medium-term lifeline.

**Market Sentiment Observation:**

After weak non-farm data, "rate cut trading" strengthened gold's relative attractiveness as a non-yielding asset, with market sentiment switching from "chasing gains" to "holding-oriented." Option implied volatility and Bollinger Band width rose synchronously, indicating the volatility startup phase continues. Meanwhile, stronger equity markets caused safe-haven premium retreat, making gold's short-term momentum non-linear after the upward push.

From group psychology and reflexivity frameworks, areas near historical highs often accompany resonance between "missing out psychology" and "chasing sentiment," but RSI overbought conditions (78.14) and "running outside upper band" short-term compression also increase false breakthrough risks. Once prices fall back below 3583.57 and fail to quickly recover, sentiment may switch from "greed" to "caution," seeking 3550.00 retest confirmation. If this level holds, bullish market sentiment will quickly recover.

**Future Outlook: Scenario Analysis**

**Short-term (days to one week)**

Oscillating consolidation predominates. Under the influence of RSI overbought conditions and high-level dense trading, gold is more likely to consolidate within the 3616.81 and 3583.57-3550.00 range, completing retest of the upper channel line and support confirmation at 3550.00 through sideways trends or minor pullbacks.

**Upbreak scenario:** If prices effectively close above 3616.81 at daily level accompanied by continued MACD histogram elevation, this can be viewed as confirmation of a new round of volume breakthrough, with bulls striving to establish new horizontal channels above 3600.

**Downbreak scenario:** If falling below 3550.00 with volume, short-term will test combined support from 3583.57 (dynamic level transitioning from resistance to support) and Bollinger middle line 3410.47. As long as the middle line isn't breached, the uptrend remains intact.