A major geopolitical "black swan" event has erupted in the Middle East. According to reports from Xinhua News Agency, multiple Iranian media outlets confirmed on the 1st that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in attacks by the United States and Israel. The Iranian government has announced a 40-day national mourning period. On February 28, former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media, stating that Khamenei was "dead" and indicating that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran would continue.
Earlier, Xinhua reported that on February 28 local time, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a "preemptive" strike against Iran, with explosions occurring in central Tehran and other locations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran subsequently announced a ban on all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Tasnim News Agency, with the halt of traffic including oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the strait has been effectively closed.
Although major futures markets were closed over the weekend, this series of "black swan" events has set the stage for significant volatility in gold and crude oil markets upon their reopening.
In the crude oil market, risks of supply disruption are intensifying, potentially reshaping the supply-demand balance. As a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz directly determines global crude oil supply patterns. According to EIA data, average daily oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was approximately 20 million barrels, accounting for over a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. About 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade also passes through the strait, primarily destined for Asian markets.
Previous monthly reports from three major international petroleum organizations in February indicated a projected global crude oil supply surplus for 2026. The EIA forecast a surplus of 3.06 million barrels per day, the IEA projected a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, while OPEC predicted a much smaller surplus of only 80,000 barrels per day. The escalation of the situation in Iran could directly disrupt this consensus expectation of a surplus.
Analysis from China International Capital Corporation points out that if Iran's crude oil production and exports face direct impact, the global oil surplus situation could end sooner than expected, with Brent crude oil prices potentially surging by $10 to $15 per barrel in the short term. If the conflict spreads to affect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and supplies from other Middle Eastern oil producers, it could trigger a significant oil price rally similar to the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
An analyst from Longzhong Information stated that due to the sudden Iran-Israel conflict, market risk aversion is rapidly increasing the risk premium for crude oil, leading to significantly heightened short-term price volatility. Subsequent price movements will heavily depend on whether the conflict escalates further and whether it impacts energy infrastructure and the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Attention is also focused on OPEC+ policy动向 at its March 1st meeting. Overall, against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, short-term oil prices have room to rise, with Brent crude oil futures potentially surpassing $75 per barrel.
Simultaneously, the OPEC+ production meeting on March 1st has become another core market focus. Everbright Futures noted that the two core logics currently driving the crude oil market are the substantive changes to the supply格局 caused by geopolitical conflict, and the dominance of OPEC+ production policy over future supply-demand balance. Market analysis suggests that if geopolitical risks continue to intensify, OPEC+ may adjust its previous policy of pausing production increases, potentially releasing capacity to buffer supply gaps, which would consequently constrain the upside for oil prices.
An independent financial commentator indicated that as the "king of commodities," crude oil prices are influenced by a combination of factors including geopolitics, supply-demand relations, and OPEC+ policy. Historically, geopolitical conflicts typically push oil prices higher. This Israeli attack on Iran is expected to drive short-term price spikes and high volatility, with prices ultimately returning to supply-demand fundamentals in the medium to long term. Investors need to closely monitor progress in US-Iran negotiations, OPEC+ policy adjustments, and changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation to gauge oil price trends.
Data from an international oil tanker traffic monitoring system showed that on February 28 local time, the sailing speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz had generally dropped to zero, indicating a停滞 state of shipping in the region. According to a late report on March 1st, citing sources, eight OPEC+ countries have reached a preliminary agreement to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day. Furthermore, according to trading sources, at 11:00 GMT on Sunday, the off-hours trading price for Brent crude was up 8% to 10% compared to the previous trading day, reaching around $80 per barrel.
In the gold market, a pulse of risk aversion is reinforcing an existing bullish cycle. Prior to this geopolitical conflict, gold was already in a bull market, and the escalation of Middle East tensions has further strengthened its upward logic. A senior associate director at Dongfang Jincheng Research and Development Department stated that against the backdrop of escalating US-Iran conflict, short-term market risk aversion will be the core driver of gold prices. In the medium to long term, the upward trend for gold is clear due to the resonance of multiple fundamental factors.
The analysis further elaborated that if Iran intensifies retaliation and blocks key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, shipping disruptions combined with energy supply contraction would create a dual driver of risk aversion and inflation, potentially leading to a breakout surge in gold prices. Conversely, if the conflict remains a localized friction and a ceasefire is quickly reached, the market's risk premium would rapidly dissipate, and gold prices would likely give back previous gains. Attention should also be paid to the potential for diplomatic de-escalation from technical negotiations, suggesting that short-term gold prices will maintain high volatility characteristics.
The head of Nanhua Futures' precious metals and new energy research group similarly believes that if the conflict escalates further, precious metals are expected to stage a strong rebound supported by safe-haven demand. If the situation evolves towards peace talks, caution is warranted against the risk of a pullback from highs as safe-haven sentiment recedes.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, gold's upward trend has more solid fundamental support. Analysis from Huaxi Securities points out that the core of this gold bull market lies in the持续 decline of the US dollar's credit standing, which has become a major historical trend. Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that as of February 2026, the total U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38.5 trillion, approaching 126% of GDP, with a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, highlighting significant fiscal structural issues.
Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve has formally entered a rate-cutting cycle, having completed its first rate cut in December 2025, with most officials projecting a cumulative 100 basis points of cuts in 2026. This significantly reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Combined with ongoing gold purchases by global central banks and the deepening "de-dollarization" trend, the medium to long-term foundation for gold's rise continues to be fortified.
Core assessment: The duration of the conflict will determine the extent of the market move, with caution advised against two-way volatility risks. Multiple institutions agree that the "duration of the war" is the core variable determining the extent of this asset price movement. Reviewing historical trends, Huaxi Securities notes that the impact of war on asset prices generally follows the pattern of "rising on expectation, selling on reality." If the conflict concludes quickly, market risk premiums will rapidly fade, and asset prices will likely surrender their gains. If the conflict turns into a protracted stalemate, asset prices will experience further turbulence.
The chief policy analyst at Zhongtai Securities Research Institute indicated that the objective of the current U.S. and Israeli military action has shifted from the previous "fighting to promote talks" towards "completely overthrowing the Iranian regime." The death of Khamenei only achieves a preliminary goal, as Iran's core ruling structure remains intact. To fully overthrow the regime, the strategic目标 will shift towards key figures in the clerical "Assembly of Experts" and the Revolutionary Guards, as well as potential successors. If the行动 encounters obstacles, a signal to watch would be a narrative shift from the Trump administration, portraying the "downfall of existing core figures" as a victory, which might indicate restrained future U.S. investment and a renewed focus on negotiations.
A well-known economist cautioned that if the market forms an expectation of a rapid end to the war, it would be bearish for gold and oil. If Iran descends into prolonged internal turmoil, asset prices would still have room to rise. Overall, short-term gains in gold and oil have been significant, and investors need to be wary of the risk of a sharp correction if geopolitical sentiment recedes, advising caution against chasing the rally. However, against the backdrop of unresolved geopolitical uncertainty and the weakening credit of the US dollar among other medium to long-term supportive factors, gold remains a core asset for hedging against global systemic risks, with its medium to long-term allocation value remaining prominent.