Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th shows that China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 33.4193 trillion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% calculated at constant prices, which is 0.5 percentage points faster than the growth rate in the fourth quarter of the previous year. At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 16th, a deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that the national economy had achieved a positive start to the year, further demonstrating its development resilience and vitality. International media outlets, including Singapore's The Straits Times and The New York Times of the United States, used the phrase "exceeding expectations" in their headlines to describe China's economic performance in the first quarter. Germany's DPA news agency noted that against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions affecting the global economy, China's economy continues to show positive development momentum.
The chief economist for Greater China at ING described growth in China's tertiary industry during the first quarter as "robust" and industrial activity as "steady," believing that the overall economic conditions will help China achieve its growth target for the year. The deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized that in the next stage, efforts will focus on maintaining stability while pursuing progress, implementing more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, continuously expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, improving incremental growth, revitalizing existing assets, and stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to consolidate and expand the trend of steady economic improvement.
The Financial Times of the UK reported on the 16th that China's first-quarter GDP growth has already reached the upper limit of the full-year growth target range of 4.5% to 5.0%. Bloomberg noted that driven by strong manufacturing and exports, China's first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year. In March, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size actually increased by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations. The Straits Times highlighted that production of products such as semiconductors, industrial robots, lithium batteries, and 3D printing equipment performed particularly well in the first quarter, achieving double-digit growth ranging from 24% to 54%.
CNBC quoted an economist from The Conference Board, who stated that due to increased demand during the Spring Festival and government subsidies, China's retail sales showed strong growth momentum in the first quarter. The deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics commented that data indicates improvements on both the supply and demand sides. On the production side, agricultural conditions are favorable. Industrially, the growth rate of industrial value added in the first quarter was 1.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year, while the service sector also maintained rapid growth, with its value added increasing by 5.2%. On the demand side, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter was 0.7 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year; fixed-asset investment turned from negative to positive, growing by 1.7% in the first quarter. The quarterly growth rate of total goods imports and exports was the highest in nearly five years.
A chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng stated that driven by factors including high export growth, rebounding investment, and steadily accelerating consumption, China's first-quarter GDP growth reached 5%, indicating an overall trend of stability with progress. The South China Morning Post quoted the chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered, who said that the better-than-expected GDP data marks a very solid start for China's economy this year. Despite increasing external uncertainties that may create greater pressure on second-quarter economic development, Chinese authorities are likely to emphasize flexibility and retain policy space.
The chief economist for Greater China at ING described China's first-quarter economic performance in a report as a "strong start," highlighting the remarkable resilience of China's industrial production and the rapid growth of the service sector as a key driver behind the growth exceeding expectations. According to The South China Morning Post, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that China will have no problem achieving its growth target of 4.5% to 5% this year, and its policies will continue to focus on promoting consumption and investment. CNN reported that while China's National Bureau of Statistics stated the national economy had a "good start," it also pointed out the existence of unfavorable factors domestically and internationally. The deputy head noted that the external situation is more complex and volatile, the domestic contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand remains prominent, and the foundation for economic improvement still needs consolidation.
The deputy head stated at the press conference that "new" industries and the "new" economy are increasingly becoming the backbone forces driving economic growth. According to the data, the value added of equipment manufacturing increased by 8.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, significantly faster than the average for all industrial enterprises above the designated size, accounting for 35.1% of the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size. Its contribution to overall industrial economic growth was nearly 50%. The growth of high-tech manufacturing was even more impressive in the first quarter, increasing by 12.5% year-on-year. Although high-tech manufacturing accounts for less than 20% of the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size, its contribution to overall industrial economic growth was 32.6%. Combining industrial data with other sectors, it is evident that new growth drivers are increasingly shouldering the main responsibility for economic development.
Information released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th shows that in March, the manufacturing of railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment grew by 13.3%, the manufacturing of computers, communication equipment, and other electronic equipment grew by 12.5%, and integrated circuit production grew by 20.6%. The ING economist believes that the continuous enhancement of China's high-end manufacturing competitiveness is expected to become one of the core pillars of China's economic growth in the coming years. The South China Morning Post suggested that breakthroughs in the commercialization and scaling of applications for artificial intelligence and other technologies are also part of the reason for the strong growth data. According to the deputy head, as of March this year, China's daily computational unit calls exceeded 140 trillion, an increase of over 40% compared to the end of the previous year.
The release of China's first-quarter national economic performance data coincided with the ongoing sixth China International Consumer Products Expo and the 139th session of the China Import and Export Fair. At the Consumer Products Expo, products representing new growth drivers of China's economy, such as embodied intelligence, low-altitude economy, brain-computer interfaces, and aerospace, were all on display. Humanoid robots from a Chinese tech company, a flying car from another Chinese company, and an eVTOL from an intelligent technology firm became major attractions, drawing a continuous stream of visitors. A vice president of one of the companies stated that the vigorous development of emerging and future industries will inject more vitality into China's economic development. At the Canton Fair, the high-tech exhibition area was also highly popular, with foreign buyers showing great curiosity and interest in cutting-edge products like robots, drones, and underwater intelligent equipment.
The deputy head stated that the first-quarter economic performance fully demonstrates the strong resilience of China's economy. He mentioned that since the beginning of the year, external instabilities and uncertainties have significantly increased, and the impacts of geopolitical conflicts have spilled over and spread. Spain's El País reported on the 16th that against a backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and global instability, China's economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum. Bloomberg reported that conflicts involving multiple nations, now in their seventh week, have not yet posed a threat to China's economic momentum, partly thanks to China's strategic deployment in recent years to strengthen energy security and enhance the economy's ability to withstand global turbulence. The New York Times commented on the 16th that due to ample fossil fuel reserves and a dominant position in renewable energy development, China is better equipped than other major economies to cope with potential oil and gas supply disruptions caused by Middle Eastern situations.
CNN reported that some analysts suggest geopolitical conflicts may not significantly impact China's overall export performance in the coming months. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China's export value denominated in US dollars increased by 14.7% year-on-year in the first quarter. This reflects China's core advantages: a long-term commitment to upgrading manufacturing towards high-value-added, high-tech products, and active efforts to establish a leading position in green technology sectors. Germany's WirtschaftsWoche stated on the 16th that as oil prices rise and concerns about supply security intensify, the motivation for many countries to turn to electric vehicles, batteries, and solar technology may strengthen. China possesses strong capabilities in these areas.
Regarding the impact of changes in the Middle Eastern situation on China's foreign trade exports and economy, the deputy head said that the results of China's foreign trade diversification are continuously emerging, international economic and trade cooperation based on mutual benefit remains vigorous, and the economy has a solid foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, providing ample conditions to cope with external risks and challenges. Reuters quoted a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, who stated that China has a rich toolbox of economic policies sufficient to deal with external shocks.