Investors in SVMK Inc. (NASDAQ:SVMK) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.7% to close at US$21.86 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$95m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.19 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for SVMK
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for SVMK from ten analysts is for revenues of US$452.1m in 2021 which, if met, would be a sizeable 26% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 13% from last year to US$0.60. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$451.0m and losses of US$0.54 per share in 2021. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on SVMK after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a per-share loss expectations.
The consensus price target held steady at US$27.90, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SVMK at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$27.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that SVMK's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 19%p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that SVMK is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at SVMK. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$27.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple SVMK analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for SVMK that we have uncovered.
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