富瑞:亚洲集装箱航企收入或已见顶 料跨太平洋即期运价将低於最初签订合同价格

AAFN
Aug 15, 2022

部份航运股今早受压,东方海外 盘中低见231.6元一度下挫12.6%,最新报233.8元跌11.8%,太航 走低2.3%,中远海控 股价跌3.7%。富瑞发表亚太区航运业报告表示,集装箱和乾散货运费继续跑输油轮,市场关注集装箱收入是否已见顶,从7月份台湾地区三分之二的业界数据已反映相关情况,并指中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)今年8月以来已低於7月水平,而上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFI)每周下降速度加快,这可能导致固定合同价格需重新下调,该行估计跨太平洋即期运价将低於最初签订的合同价格。该行指,虽然台湾地区集装箱航运公司的7月收入按年增长29%,但按月下降0.7%。然而,收入有所不同,长荣海运收入每月增长4.1%,而万海航运和阳明海运的收入各下降5.5%及5.1%。差异可能是由於长荣海运的跨太平洋运力较高,这反映了跨太平洋较高年度合同对整个月的影响。然而,该行估计月度集装箱收入可能已经见顶,因为不同航线的即期费率较低,中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)8月以来均平均按月下降3.7%。监於其跨太平洋业务比重各异,全球营运商之间的收入可能会有所不同。跨太平洋合约价格将至关重要,因为CCFI 的美国西部基本港(USWC)和美国东部基本港(USEC)指数分别为按周升0.5%和下跌0.8%,但计入等效即期汇率影响後各按周下降5.3%及2.4%。监於即期汇率低於合约价格,该行预计跨太平洋CCFI指数将下跌,这在历史上会导致合约价格被调低。(wl/t)~阿思达克财经新闻网址: www.aastocks.com

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