麦格理发研报指,天润云(02167)的教育部门业务仍在2022年上半年对公司业绩造成影响,导致销售额同比下降。但由于科技、汽车、保险和医疗保健领域的强劲需求,其他部门收入同比录得24.2%增长。此外,教育业务收入在上半年已缩减至10%左右,但预计2023年对公司收入增长影响将有所缓解。
短期内,公司目标为非教育业务收入同比增长20-25%,并在22财年保持盈利。同时由于科技、汽车、保险和医疗保健的强劲需求,公司对中期前景持乐观态度,目标指引包括保持90%的SaaS收入组合、2025年将毛利率提升至50%、及通过并购拥有良好产品与客户组合的新垂直领域公司,将市场份额从约10%(2021年)扩大至20%等。
考虑到教育业务对收入的影响以及上半年的经营去杠杆,该行将2022-24年的收入预测下调7%/4%/4%,并将净利润预测下调59%/13%/16%。目标价从17港元下调11%至15.2港元,维持“跑赢大市”评级。
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