【券商聚焦】华西证券首予卫龙(09985)“买入”评级看好其市占率进一步提升

凤凰网港股

Dec 21, 2022

华西证券发研报指，辣条产业集中，参考智研咨询数据，2020年规模超过600亿元，卫龙(09985)一家独大，预计行业将持续规范和集中。同时，近几年研发推出了魔芋爽、风吃海带等多样化大单品，有望接档辣条成长，推动公司规模扩张。该行预计公司2022-2024年收入分别为48.44/58.29/67.59亿元，分别同比+0.5%/+20.3%/+16.0%；2022-2024年归母净利润分别为2.34/9.26/11.69亿元，分别同比-71.7%/+295.4%/+26.3%；每股盈测分别为0.10/0.39/0.50元，对应2022年12月19日收盘价8.85港元/股估值分别为79/20/16倍（汇率0.892），首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。

该行续指，参考弗若斯特沙利文数据，国内休闲零食规模已达8251亿元，近5年年化增长6.1%，未来5年仍将持续蓬勃发展，实现6.8%的年化增长，到2026年休闲零食市场规模将达到11427亿元，行业持续扩容，给予各企业成长机遇。细分来看，卫龙聚焦辣味休闲零食，辣味休闲零食未来5年有望实现9.6%的年化增长，到2026年规模达到2737亿元，其中卫龙稳居行业第一，2021年市占率6.2%，有望随着行业发展持续扩大规模，强化竞争优势。

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