智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研究报告称，首予卫龙(09985)“中性”评级，预计2022-24年营收为48/57.6/66亿元，归母净利为1.6/10.3/12.4亿元，EPS预测为0.07/0.44/0.53元。考虑到公司成长空间或有限，目标价11.8港元。公司高端化持续进行，2023年有望享受提价红利。
报告中称，公司于2022年四五月将辣条全线产品价格提高20%以上，据调研目前出厂口径毛利率已达将近45%。虽然大幅提价后掉量问题较为严重，短期内终端进货意愿较差，销量下降幅度超过价格增长幅度，导致收入承压。但目前销量环比有所恢复，下降幅度已经逐步收窄。主因年轻消费者价格敏感度较低，提价后卫龙的动销仍然较好，因此渠道进货积极性重新提高。
该行表示，成本端来看，公司2022年各项成本仍上涨，而2023年成本有望下行或企稳，增厚毛利。费用端来看，卫龙曾借力白色包装产品持续自控渠道，并对经销商全面审评汰换，目前渠道精耕持续进行中，对终端掌控力度加大。虽然长期来看对品牌与渠道建设的费用有所加大，但若提价红利显现后，费用率仍在可控范围内，且将有助于公司巩固长期的竞争优势。
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