Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a fresh 25-month low on Friday on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.

That mild weather should allow utilities to keep pulling less gas from storage than normal for this time of year. Gas stockpiles were already about 9% above their five-year average (2018-2022) and were on track to rise to about 15% above normal this week, according to analysts' estimates.

That price decline came despite recent increases in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants to a 10-month high, with Freeport LNG in Texas preparing to exit an eight-month outage.

Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 4.9 cents, or 2.1%, to $2.340 per million British thermal units at 9:04 a.m. EST (1404 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since December 2020 for a second day in a row.

For the week, the front-month was down about 7% after gaining about 4% last week.

With interest in gas markets rising in recent weeks, open interest in gas futures on the NYMEX rose to 1.24 million shares on Thursday, the highest since December 2021.

At the same time, the number of shares outstanding in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund , an exchange-traded fund $(ETF.AU)$ designed to track the daily price movement of gas, rose to a record high near 131.0 million shares. Total UNG shares outstanding have hit fresh record highs every day but one since Jan. 13.

The premiums of futures for April over March and November over October both rose to record highs. The market uses both spreads to bet on winter weather when gas burned to heat homes and businesses causes demand for the fuel to peak.

The April over March premium means the market has given up on this winter, while the November over October premium shows that the market is betting on colder weather next winter.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 13.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Friday, the highest since March 2022, due to a rapid increase in flows to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas as the facility prepares to exit the outage caused by a fire in June 2022.

Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was on track to pull in about 0.5 bcfd of gas from pipelines for a fifth day in a row on Friday, according to data provider Refinitiv. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export.

Earlier this week, Freeport LNG asked federal regulators for permission to put the first phase of its restart plan into commercial operation. Phase 1 includes the full operation of the plant's three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG, two storage tanks and one LNG loading dock.

Energy regulators and analysts, however, have said they do not expect Freeport LNG to return to full commercial operation until mid-March or later.

Federal regulators approved the restart of Freeport LNG liquefaction Train 3, but have not authorized the facility to commence liquefaction operations. Freeport LNG still needs permission from regulators to place new LNG in the tanks and transfer it to ships.

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through March 4 except for some cold days around Feb. 24-25 and Feb 28-March 2.

With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 117.2 bcfd this week to 118.6 bcfd next week and 125.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Feb 17 Feb 10 Feb 17 average

(Forecast) (Actual) Feb 17

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -71 -100 -138 -177

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,195 2,266 1,800 1,906

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 15.2% +8.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2022 (2018-2022)

Henry Hub 2.34 2.39 4.46 6.54 3.60

Title Transfer Facility $(TTF)$ 15.43 16.13 26.94 40.50 14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 16.30 15.61 25.82 34.11 14.31

Refinitiv Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total

(TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 360 361 417 386 369

U.S. GFS CDDs 12 11 9 7 7

U.S. GFS TDDs 372 372 416 393 376

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year

Week Last Year Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 96.9 98.2 98.0 94.6 87.7

U.S. Imports from Canada 8.4 7.8 8.3 9.8 9.1

U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

Total U.S. Supply 105.4 106.0 106.3 104.5 97

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.7 5.2

U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 13.1 12.9 13.0 6.6

U.S. Commercial 16.0 13.6 14.0 16.9 16.4

U.S. Residential 26.5 22.1 22.8 27.6 27.7

U.S. Power Plant 30.1 28.3 28.8 26.5 28.1

U.S. Industrial 24.7 24.2 24.1 25.3 25.2

U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8

U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 104.9 95.8 97.3 103.9 105.4

Total U.S. Demand 125.4 117.2 118.6 125.5 119.9

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

Feb 17 Feb 10 Feb 3 Jan 27 Jan 20

Wind 15 15 10 11 13

Solar 3 3 2 2 2

Hydro 7 6 7 7 7

Other 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 37 36 39 38 36

Coal 15 17 21 19 18

Nuclear 21 21 19 21 21

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 2.48 2.45

Transco Z6 New York 2.22 2.04

PG&E Citygate 7.11 7.46

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.05 1.88

Chicago Citygate 2.43 2.38

Algonquin Citygate 2.75 2.12

SoCal Citygate 7.14 7.59

Waha Hub 2.20 2.17

AECO 1.99 1.95

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England 40.75 30.75

PJM West 35.50 27.25

Ercot North 33.50 14.75

Mid C 82.50 82.50

Palo Verde 71.25 71.25

SP-5 72.75 72.75

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Holmes)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters nEiko terminal. For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps ))