March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a three-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for less cold weather and lower demand this week than previously expected and with an increase in gas output so far this month.

That lack of price movement came despite forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants since the return in February of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas from an eight-month outage.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery fell 0.9 cents, or 0.4%, to $2.329 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:26 a.m. EDT (1326 GMT). On Friday, the contract fell about 7% to close at its lowest since Feb. 23.

The gas market has been extremely volatile in recent weeks as traders bet on the latest weather forecasts.

The front-month fell to a 28-month low below $2 per mmBtu in intraday trade on Feb. 22 on forecasts for warmer weather before jumping 9% on colder forecasts to settle at a five-week high above $3 just over a week later on March 3. It plunged 15% on March 6 on a warmer outlook.

Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to pull in 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas for a third day in a row on Monday, according to data provider Refinitiv.

When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. The plant was shut due to a fire in June 2022.

Total gas flows to all seven of the big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.2 bcfd so far in March from 12.8 bcfd in February. That would top the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022, before the Freeport LNG facility shut.

The seven big U.S. LNG export plants, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.7 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022.

Analysts said production declined earlier this year due in part to gas price declines of 40% in January and 35% in December that persuaded several energy firms to reduce the number of rigs they were using to drill for gas.

In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing some oil and gas wells in several producing basins.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near-normal through April 3.

Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 116.2 bcfd this week to 108.3 bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday, while its forecasts for next week were higher.

Milder winter weather this year has prompted utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual.

Gas stockpiles were about 24% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 10 and were expected to end about 16% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 17, according to federal data and analysts' estimates.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Mar 17 Mar 10 Mar 17 average

(Forecast) (Actual) Mar 17

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -80 -58 -55 -45

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,892 1,972 1,396 1,549

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 16.3% 23.7%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2022 (2018-2022)

Henry Hub 2.41 2.34 4.98 6.54 3.60

Title Transfer Facility $(TTF)$ 12.66 13.57 41.81 40.50 14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.18 13.55 36.96 34.11 14.31

Refinitiv Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total

(TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 238 275 237 238 240

U.S. GFS CDDs 21 12 18 21 17

U.S. GFS TDDs 259 287 255 259 257

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year

Week Last Year Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.7 98.6 98.7 94.3 89.4

U.S. Imports from Canada 7.7 7.9 7.8 9.0 8.6

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total U.S. Supply 106.4 106.5 106.6 103.3 99.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.0

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2

U.S. LNG Exports 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 7.4

U.S. Commercial 14.0 13.2 10.8 10.1 12.4

U.S. Residential 22.3 21.0 16.7 14.3 19.6

U.S. Power Plant 30.4 28.9 29.1 24.1 25.7

U.S. Industrial 24.3 24.2 23.0 23.2 23.6

U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 98.5 94.8 86.9 79.2 88.9

Total U.S. Demand 120.0 116.2 108.3 101.4 104.5

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

Mar 24 Mar 17 Mar 10 Mar 3 Feb 24

Wind 15 15 12 13 15

Solar 3 3 3 3 3

Hydro 7 7 7 7 7

Other 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 37 37 41 40 39

Coal 17 17 16 15 14

Nuclear 19 19 20 20 20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 2.42 2.45

Transco Z6 New York 2.34 2.20

PG&E Citygate 6.94 7.03

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.18 2.24

Chicago Citygate 2.39 2.53

Algonquin Citygate 3.17 2.38

SoCal Citygate 8.00 7.09

Waha Hub 1.40 1.46

AECO 2.12 2.13

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England 29.25 32.75

PJM West 28.50 29.75

Ercot North 39.50 28.75

Mid C 75.25 88.50

Palo Verde 45.50 80.00

SP-5 50.50 64.75

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jason Neely)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters nEiko terminal. For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps ))