【券商聚焦】海通国际指乳制品消费表现优于其他食品饮料子行业

凤凰网港股

Oct 20, 2023

金吾财讯 | 海通国际发研报指，宏观经济环境依赖消费持续增长，乳制品消费量近十年来连续正增长，显著好于其他食品饮料子行业。

该行指，消费者健康意识增强，常温白奶迎来复苏式增长；随着超巴技术的广泛应用和冷链物流的不断完善，巴氏奶方兴未艾，企业加速布局及投入，市场将迎来供需双提升；酸奶产品整体略有承压，但是常温、低温产品均在持续创新，有望跟随消费场景和消费力恢复，占比逐渐回升；婴幼儿配方奶粉近年因新生儿不断下降进入挤压式增长，但国产品牌份额持续提升，国家人口政策利好有望重新激发行业潜力。该行续指，近两年乳制品行业增长趋缓，部分品类甚至出现负增长，上下游上市公司股价低迷，给业内人士和投资机构带来较大压力和信心挫伤。这背后的原因复杂，有经济减速、国际形势、供需失衡等等。同时也要看到乳制品需求长期增长、乳业集中度不断提升、产业进入壁垒越来越高、乳企竞争实力和盈利能力逐渐加强。目前处于原奶价格、收入增速和公司估值的周期底部。展望3-5年，无论是下游制造企业，如蒙牛(02319)、伊利、飞鹤(06186)等，还是上游养殖企业，如现代牧业(01117)、优然牧业(09858)等，投资价值均有相当可观的提升空间。

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