金吾财讯 | 海通国际表示，随着今年迄今锂价的暴跌，该行认为，目前的价格水平对于许多锂生产商来说，在中期内是不可持续的，而且在该行看来，目前的价格水平远低于边际成本。过去，特别是在新冠疫情期间，供应延迟部分与供应链或劳动力供应问题有关。但随着锂价的上涨，该行预计产量增长和潜在的新项目可能会推迟到2025年或更晚，甚至一些生产商会减产，最近就有一些生产商减产。该行看跌今年的锂价，主要原因是供应可能过剩。尽管目前的价格已经超出该行的预期，但该行认为这波行情对行业来说不可持续。但由于需求依然强劲，价格有望回升。在大宗商品股中，对于采取多年期观点的投资者，该行建议买入锂股。该行提到，锂价远低于海通国际2024财年预测，也远低于平均利润成本：中国电池级氢氧化锂价格今年迄今为止平均为11,819美元/吨，季环比下降33%，同比下降68%，目前比该行的预测低约60%。现货锂价也远低于该行对全球边际锂生产成本的估计，该行预测该成本约为25,000美元/吨，这意味着全球至少有10%的锂生产出现亏损。
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