智通财经APP获悉,中泰国际策略分析师颜招骏认为,目前港股估值仍较低,政策预期助力估值修复,恒指预测市盈率修复至8.3倍,但仍处于历史较低水平,基于基本面、获利面、资金面、估值面等因素,预计恒指9月合理运行区间为16800至18300点。
颜招骏指出,市场寄望9月美联储减息可进一步打开中国人民银行货币政策空间,但年内减息幅度或低于当前市场预期,而在中央“调结构”与“防风险”的政策框架下,央行始终保持货币政策的稳健性,9月后中国扩大消费以旧换新领域、加速地产收储和保障性住房建设、以及潜在的降低存量房贷等结构性政策有发力可能。
颜招骏表示,历史上,港股在美联储减息前一个月各板块表现普遍较理想,但减息后1个月、3个月及6个月的表现比较分化,必需消费、科技、医疗保健及能源表现较好,但减息只影响股价升幅,不会改变股价方向,决定性因素还是最决于中国经济基本面。
中泰国际9月推荐的股份有:阿里巴巴(09988)、中国联通(00762)、香港电讯(06823)、同程旅行(00780)、华润万象生活(01209)、雅迪控股(01585)、友邦保险(01299)、吉利汽车(00175)、粤海投资(00270)。
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