【橡胶供应回升缓慢，国内库存继续去化】金十期货9月20日讯，今年在原料价格水平更高下，各主产区胶农的割胶意愿较强，但受到降雨的持续影响，海外原料产出仍受限，预计将对国内进口的影响至少持续到10月份。对于国内9月份的供应判断，受降雨及9月上旬以来台风天气的影响，预计国内产出同比难有增量。展望下游需求，在国内传统旺季到来下，生产端开工率有望维持较高水平，叠加乘用车销售仍处于旺季周期，国内乘用车需求有望维持，而重卡销量将呈现季节性改善，国内出口将延续高增长局面；需求环比回升。海内外刚性需求仍存，叠加季节性旺季到来，天然橡胶需求端支撑仍较强。供应端来看，随着各国主产区原料的上量，预计国内进口量将逐步回升，但受降雨天气的影响，主产区产量回升缓慢，国内进口压力难以体现，预计国内延续小幅去库格局。目前RU及NR估值中性，主产区天气扰动使得天然橡胶供应回升缓慢叠加需求旺季来临，预计国内库存有望保持小幅去库格局，建议保持偏多思路。
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