The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the HMN Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ:HMNF) share price is up 40% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 32% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 15% in the last three years.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
View our latest analysis for HMN Financial
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the last twelve months, HMN Financial actually shrank its EPS by 29%.
Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.
We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 1.5% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. HMN Financial's revenue actually dropped 4.2% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on HMN Financial's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, HMN Financial's TSR for the last 1 year was 42%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
We're pleased to report that HMN Financial shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 42% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 6% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for HMN Financial (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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