ODP (NASDAQ:ODP) shareholders have earned a 9.7% CAGR over the last five years

Simply Wall St.
12 Oct 2024

The ODP Corporation (NASDAQ:ODP) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 24% in the last quarter. But the silver lining is the stock is up over five years. In that time, it is up 56%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 111%. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for five years, so spare a thought for those caught in the 32% decline over the last three years: that's a long time to wait for profits.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for ODP

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, ODP managed to grow its earnings per share at 15% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 9% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqGS:ODP Earnings Per Share Growth October 12th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between ODP's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. ODP's TSR of 59% for the 5 years exceeded its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

ODP shareholders are down 31% for the year, but the market itself is up 36%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 10%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with ODP .

Of course ODP may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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