We look at some of our portfolio picks and tell you how crypto gains have been doing since we recommended them. Plus, what we would change with what we know now? Today, a scorecard on our previous recommendations. Let’s see how we did.
So let’s start with our Q1 recommendations. We had 2 videos in February on Where to Invest $1500 and AI Gems. In total, we recommended 6 projects. On February 19, we recommended DOT, SOL, and KUJI.
And on February 28th for AI Gems we recommended RNDR, TRAC (OriginTrail), and The Graph $GRT. How did we do?
On Feb 19th, $KUJI was trading at $4.13. And today, 37c. A drop of almost 90%. That one hurts. We believe its rebirth as part of the Thorchain ecosystem will be a good move long term. But for now, holders are suffering including our Master Portfolio and some on the AB team, too.
This 3 coin portfolio was profitable on 1 out of 3. And no question about it, if you bought all 3 in February in equal amounts, you lost some money. Now, the AI gems:
As you can see, our top AI picks, and they are still high-quality projects were down between 42-52% in 7 months. To compare, Bitcoin is down 5% in that same time. Ethereum is down 30% at the time. So of the 6 we picked, the only one that beat either $BTC or $ETH is Solana.
To be fair, it’s been terrible for alts for all 2024 so far but results are results. Now, our Q2-2024 recommendations. Here we recommend:
And how did we do? As you can see in this chart, EVERYTHING lost money in Q2. From the leader Bitcoin down 12% to the leading RWA platform Centrifuge down 51%. Even SOL, which has been the market darling of alts was down 9% during this period.
It was a rough market for all. Other than some specific memecoins, I’m not sure there were any projects we could have picked in Q2 and made a profit. But the lessons from Q1 and Q2 are pretty clear. Bitcoin led the entire market while Solana led the alts. Nearly everything else did much worse. Now let’s look at the more recent Q3-2024 picks.
Our Q3 picks have similar themes but now less time to perform well or poorly. After all, these picks are only since July and Q3 is ending at the end of this month so that’s less than 3 months. Our picks here were:
You see we have a couple of repeats as well as some deeper picks in areas we like such as RWA or AI. Here so far, we are doing better than the abysmal Q2 performance. So far this quarter, RWA project Goldfinch is at break even, while Bitcoin, FET, and OM are in the money. They have returns of 3%, 50%, and 25%, respectively.
Pretty nice so far. Many of our picks beat Ethereum, which was down 34% for the quarter. The evidence from our sample shows that market sentiment and conditions are better this quarter than they were in the first half of 2024. What else did we learn from this portfolio review?
Here are the lessons we’ve learned so far in 2024:
If I’ve said it here once, I’ve said it 50 times. But if you don’t have at least SOME Bitcoin in your portfolio, then you are doing this all wrong. We’ve seen in almost every period in 2024 that more than 99% of projects did worse than Bitcoin.
Don’t discriminate against Bitcoin just because it’s “old” or “big” or the days of 50x in 6 months are gone due to its huge size. Given the returns we’ve just seen, I bet most of you (and us) would LOVE to see a 3x, 5x, or 10x, right? And Bitcoin can still do that with less risk than many of the alts out there.
Other than SOL, many of the best-performing alts are in these 2 hot sectors.
We are very early on platforms that are creator-centered or in Decentralized Social like Story Protocol or Farcaster. But sometime in the next year or two, they will emerge as equally hot sectors to AI.
Solana looks to be the home of almost all retail activity. SOL and Sui are taking most of the action away from ETH in NFTs. Solana is crushing in memecoins and gaining in DeFi.
Will this continue? It could. And SOL has been one of 2024’s best performers. I would keep watching this to see if it continues.
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