美银:特朗普引发美债大跌?介绍预测美债走势的最新框架,模型显示市场对未来宏观基本面预期恶化 New UST Framework

地平线全球策略
07 Nov 2024

美国大选结果出炉,特朗普执政后可能采取宽财政+紧货币的政策组合,将导致美国财政赤字率继续攀升,引发全球投资者对美债前景的担忧。为更准确预测美债走势,美银在本文中迭代更新了其美债宏观模型框架。本文将从美债宏观分析框架、宏观因子层、模型估计层、模型总结和模型局限这五个方面展开。模型结果显示,当前10年期国债的基本面公允价值在4.15%-4.2%之间,与我们模型测算的4.1%-4.2%基本一致。十年期...

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