Investors in Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:THR) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.7% to close at US$28.45 following the release of its second-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$115m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.28. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Thermon Group Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Thermon Group Holdings from four analysts is for revenues of US$509.3m in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 11% to US$1.45. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$538.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.60 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$37.33, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Thermon Group Holdings' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Thermon Group Holdings analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Thermon Group Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Thermon Group Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Thermon Group Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Thermon Group Holdings. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$37.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Thermon Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Thermon Group Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Thermon Group Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.