Investors in Coles Group (ASX:COL) have seen returns of 20% over the past year

Simply Wall St.
12 Nov 2024

We believe investing is smart because history shows that stock markets go higher in the long term. But if when you choose to buy stocks, some of them will be below average performers. Over the last year the Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) share price is up 15%, but that's less than the broader market return. In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 0.7% lower than it was three years ago.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for Coles Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Coles Group was able to grow EPS by 8.3% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 15% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:COL Earnings Per Share Growth November 11th 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Coles Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Coles Group, it has a TSR of 20% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Coles Group provided a TSR of 20% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 6% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Coles Group's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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