N-able, Inc. (NYSE:NABL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.8% to US$11.23 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$116m were what the analysts expected, N-able surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.06 per share, an impressive 109% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for N-able

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from N-able's five analysts is for revenues of US$495.5m in 2025. This would reflect a solid 8.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 3.2% to US$0.19 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$509.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$14.75, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on N-able's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic N-able analyst has a price target of US$16.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that N-able's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than N-able.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple N-able analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with N-able .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.