Avantium (AMS:AVTX) investors are sitting on a loss of 23% if they invested three years ago

Simply Wall St.
13 Nov 2024

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Avantium N.V. (AMS:AVTX) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 43% in three years, versus a market decline of about 7.7%. Even worse, it's down 13% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. However, we note the price may have been impacted by the broader market, which is down 8.4% in the same time period.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for Avantium

Because Avantium made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In the last three years, Avantium saw its revenue grow by 27% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. The share price drop of 13% per year over three years would be considered disappointing by many, so you might argue the company is getting little credit for its impressive revenue growth. It seems likely that actual growth fell short of shareholders' expectations. Still, with high hopes now tempered, now might prove to be an opportunity to buy.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ENXTAM:AVTX Earnings and Revenue Growth November 13th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Avantium

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Avantium's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Avantium's TSR, at -23% is higher than its share price return of -43%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

Avantium shareholders are down 20% for the year, but the market itself is up 10%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Avantium is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are potentially serious...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Dutch exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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