金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发研报指，澳博控股(00880)于11月12日盘后发布24Q3财报，该行看好上葡京市占率继续爬坡，维持买入：1）VIP、中场、老虎机GGR环比上涨，而并未像金沙、美高梅等展现出博彩恢复或见顶的风险；2）EBITDA利润率自23Q1转正以来环比上升，盈利能力改善；3）今年以来GGR份额持续增长，24Q3至13.9%，上葡京GGR份额也增至2.6%；4）但VIP、中场恢复不及行业。该行指，10月澳门博彩收入达207.8亿澳门元，创疫情后新高。该行预计今年澳门博彩收入将恢复到2019年的约80%水平。澳博疫情前16-19年平均EV/EBITDA为8.9x，低于同期行业平均，主要系物业较少份额下跌。如今上葡京跟原有物业可强势互补，且爬坡已看见明显成效，24Q3上葡京GGR市占率和入住率环比均增长。公司经调整EBITDA利润率同环比均见提升。故该行给予公司高于疫情前估值。该行认为公司通过上葡京的高端餐饮等优势和新管理层的带领，或能抢回市场份额。维持24/25/26经调整EBITDA预测为37.6/47.6/50.4亿港元，重申“买入”，维持目标价4.7港元，对应25年EV/EBITDA10x。
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