Paragon 28, Inc. (NYSE:FNA) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Paragon 28 beat expectations with revenues of US$62m arriving 2.9% ahead of forecasts. The company also reported a statutory loss of US$0.15, 3.8% smaller than was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Paragon 28 after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Paragon 28

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Paragon 28 from six analysts is for revenues of US$291.6m in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 19% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 31% to US$0.46. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$292.8m and US$0.47 per share in losses.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$14.40, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Paragon 28 at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$12.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.2% annually. So although Paragon 28 is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Paragon 28. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Paragon 28 analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Paragon 28 (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.