金吾财讯 | 拼多多(PDD)盘前涨超2%，截至发稿，报116.31美元。消息面上，中信证券研报表示，2024年双11大促结束，结合复旦消费大数据实验室等第三方数据平台及各公司销售数据通稿，预计双11期间电商大盘GMV同比增速+10%~+12%，好于去年同期增长表现。电商板块兼具消费与互联网双重属性，是少有的同时具备强业绩兑现能力（平台模式攻守兼备）与业绩弹性（承接消费刺激政策的核心通道）的优质赛道，在当前市场情绪下建议重点关注。伴随9月底以来经济刺激政策陆续推出，消费者情绪、购买力均有望迎来修复，消费互联网核心标的业绩值得期待。从竞争格局演变来看，伴随抖音电商业务降速，板块竞争担忧减弱，整体估值吸引力有望提升。选股方面，建议从目前估值倍数尚有修复空间、以及对消费刺激政策更加敏感两个角度进行筛选。
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