【短期来看，利空边际释放下，氧化铝期价或已经见顶】金十期货11月28日讯，临近11月末，氧化铝期价呈冲高回落态势。随着供需面利空消息的释放，市场情绪出现微妙变化。1. 电解铝厂成本压力负反馈逐渐传导至氧化铝市场。据上海有色网数据，目前电解铝行业平均成本已经逼近21000元/吨，铝厂冶炼成本不断上涨，成本压力之下，继前期河南、广西铝厂停产后，贵州及新疆个别铝厂也出现了减产情况，目前共涉及年产能近50万吨，占目前运行产能的1%左右。2. 10月河南、山东、广西等地均不断出现因天气污染或设备检修导致的停减产，影响阶段内的焙烧量，延续了长单交付压力。考虑到供应端影响不断，短期内新增量释放有限，因此需求端边际减量对缓解现阶段氧化铝供需偏紧态势较为有限。3. 下游需求端，俄铝也迫于氧化铝成本压力，宣布启动生产优化计划，其中第一阶段将减少25万吨年产量。4. 短期来看，利空边际释放下，氧化铝期价或已经见顶。但是中期来看，氧化铝供应端影响不断，需求端刚性犹存，供需面继续对2025年一季度氧化铝期价构成支撑，期货近强远弱格局有望延续。未来供需拐点何时到来尚不明确，市场仍将针对合约月间价差以及期现价差进行交易。氧化铝主力合约2501将进入高位震荡期，需警惕期货补贴水带来的变化。
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