CEE MARKETS-Zloty, crown hold firm as euro steadies against dollar

Reuters
03 Dec 2024

WARSAW, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Central European currencies held steady on Tuesday, with the zloty and crown off of multi-week highs, while the forint hung at its lowest in two years, as the euro cut some losses against the dollar.

The euro edged up on Tuesday, regaining some poise after political turmoil in France sent traders scrambling for hedging protection against further price swings.

Polish rate-setters start a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with all respondents in a Reuters poll expecting their decision on Wednesday to be no change and markets keen for clues from the National Bank of Poland governor's press conference on Thursday on when easing could be resumed.

Poland's main interest rate has been steady since surprise easing last fall, which along with the release of earlier frozen European Union funds, has propped up the zloty to outperform regional peers so far this year.

By 0917 the Polish zloty traded 0.1% lower against the euro at 4.2920, a touch off of a two-month high of 4.2815 hit on Monday.

"The zloty - in our opinion - will remain under the dominant influence of the external environment. Although we assume the dollar will strengthen internationally...the fact that the EUR/USD decline will be driven by the weakness of the euro will cause the zloty to gain slightly," Bank Millenium analysts wrote in a note.

A firming dollar often signals a lower risk appetite, putting emerging market assets, including Central-Eastern European currencies, under pressure.

"The durability of this move will be decided by Friday's data from the American labor market. A 'strong' reading of non-farm payrolls may change the fate of this week on the złoty market," Bank Millennium analysts added.

The Czech crown inched 0.1% higher to 25.2250 per euro, its strongest in more than three weeks.

Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint traded flat at 414.80 per euro, after touching its weakest level since Dec. 2022.

"CEE FX continues to diverge with HUF weakening further following Moody's decision to change the rating outlook from stable to negative and also lower EUR/USD," ING analysts wrote in a note.

Last week, credit rating agency Moody's revised Hungary's outlook to "negative" from "stable", saying Hungary could lose access to billions worth of European Union funds, while a possible rise in pre-election spending could exacerbate negative fiscal trends.

Data from Hungary on Tuesday confirmed the economy falling 0.8% year-on-year in the third quarter.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1017 CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previous Daily Change

trade close change in 2024

Czech 25.2250 25.2385 +0.05% -2.08%

crown

Hungary 414.8000 414.9250 +0.03% -7.62%

forint

Polish 4.2920 4.2861 -0.14% +1.22%

zloty

Romanian 4.9770 4.9772 +0.00% -0.05%

leu

Serbian 116.9100 116.9600 +0.04% +0.29%

dinar

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

Prague 1711.66 1704.750 +0.41% +21.05%

0

Budapest 78658.35 78204.33 +0.58% +29.76%

Warsaw 2242.71 2247.36 -0.21% -4.28%

Bucharest 16379.25 16447.31 -0.41% +6.56%

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republic

2-year <CZ2YT=RR 3.2570 -0.0060 +133bps -4bps

>

5-year <CZ5YT=RR 3.6060 0.0100 +171bps -2bps

>

10-year <CZ10YT=R 3.9630 0.0780 +190bps +5bps

R>

Poland

2-year <PL2YT=RR 4.9450 0.0670 +302bps +4bps

>

5-year <PL5YT=RR 5.2590 0.0900 +336bps +6bps

>

10-year <PL10YT=R 5.6210 0.0460 +356bps +2bps

R>

FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interban

k

Czech Rep < 3.77 3.55 3.37 3.89

PRIBOR=>

Hungary < 6.95 6.62 6.32 6.50

BUBOR=>

Poland < 5.65 5.09 4.67 5.85

WIBOR=>

Note: FRA are for ask prices

quotes

**************************************************

************

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)

((karl.badohal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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