ServiceTitan Analysts See Margins Weighing on Valuation Post-IPO

Bloomberg
10 Dec 2024

(Bloomberg) -- ServiceTitan Inc.’s profit margins will be key to closing a valuation gap relative to peers, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, as the company’s initial public offering approaches.

The home-service software business is seeking to raise nearly $590 million in a first-time share sale this week after boosting the price range on Tuesday to $65 to $67 each from $52 to $57 apiece. The increase shows high investor interest in ServiceTitan, BI analysts led by Anurag Rana wrote in a note updated Tuesday. However, its valuation compared to larger rivals could be dented if it doesn’t make a clear effort to boost its margins, BI said.

ServiceTitan could achieve an enterprise valuation of as much as $7.9 billion in the IPO, BI said before the price range was raised. Its weak margins will likely be an issue as a public company, given heightened investor focus on free cash flow, Rana said. “Management may have to clearly communicate a path to profit improvement, as our analysis shows that companies with steady margin gains are trading above the industry average.”

The note adds another perspective on the company ahead of its IPO, which is expected to price on Wednesday. Roth Capital Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni pegged ServiceTitan’s fully-diluted market value with the new range at about $6.8 billion, below the roughly $7.6 billion the tech firm was valued at in a 2022 funding round, according to data provider PitchBook.

Companies launching US IPOs this year have been more cautious in terms of targeting both fundraising size and valuation. US first-time share sales have raised $41 billion in the year to date, 61% above the same period last year but still below the average in the decade before the pandemic, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Operating Expenses

High operating expenses have weighed on ServiceTitan’s free cash flow, according to BI. In the six months ending July, the Los Angeles-based company had a free cash flow margin of -1.6%, well behind established software peers like HubSpot Inc., which has a free cash flow margin around 15%, BI calculations show. 

Adjusted operating margin in that period was around 5% — also falling short of more established technology peers. Adobe Inc. has an adjusted operating margin of more than 40%, and HubSpot’s is around 17%, according to BI. 

Investors tend to favor companies that have demonstrated steady margin expansion, according to Rana. This appetite for growth means ServiceTitan has an opportunity to lift its market value, he said. 

“In 2020, software companies were going public at valuations of 20 times sales or even higher, driven by investor interest in the sector, especially among those names that saw increased adoption because of the pandemic,” said Rana. “This sentiment toward margins changed in 2022 as interest rates started to climb and enterprises pulled back on IT spending.”

Of course, there are also major positive catalysts for the company going forward. ServiceTitan has the potential to achieve high-teens percentage sales growth annually at least for the next two years, BI said. The company’s software product has a large addressable market of about $13 billion, which according to a BI analysis could grow much bigger as its software caters to a larger portion of the $1 trillion-plus home-improvement market.

The company also boasts an “encouraging” adjusted platform gross margin of around 77%, with total gross margin of around 70%, according to data calculated by BI. 

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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