大新金融温嘉炜预测今明两年中国通胀增幅0.3%及0.5%

阿斯达克财经
10 Dec 2024

大新金融集团首席经济及策略师温嘉炜指,11月内地消费物价升幅略为放缓,主要受到食品价格升幅收窄所影响,由于近期气温较往年偏暖,有利于农产品生产及储运,带动鲜菜及鲜果等新鲜食品价格回落,同时非食品价格仍然低迷,或反映整体内需复苏仍然乏力。
该行目前预期今年全年内地通胀增幅约0.3%,明年通胀预计增长0.5%,通胀维持低位将有利内地实施适度宽松的货币政策,以及更加积极的财政政策。

展望未来,他预期国际大宗商品价格走弱,以及出口可能受到欧美等国的针对性行动所影响,或会加剧内地部分工业领域产能过剩的问题,继续为生产物价带来压力,预测明年上半年生产物价按年跌幅或仍达1%左右。(gc/k)

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